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    Increased ENSO sea surface temperature variability under four IPCC emission scenarios


    The summary for policymakers of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report1 (AR6) has reaffirmed that it is “very likely that the ENSO rainfall variability is projected to be amplified by the second half of the 21st century” in most emission scenarios, consistent with findings by previous studies of a stronger rainfall response to ENSO SST variability even if ENSO SST variability itself does not change2,3,4. This assessment is reinforced in Chapter 4 of AR6 that “it is very likely that ENSO rainfall variability, used for defining extreme El Niños and La Niñas, will increase significantly, regardless of amplitude changes in ENSO SST variability, by the second half of the 21st century” in most emission scenarios. However, the AR6 report further states that “there is no model consensus for a systematic change in intensity of ENSO sea surface temperature (SST) variability over the 21st century in any of the SSP scenarios assessed (medium confidence),” which we find does not reflect findings of the latest research.

    The IPCC AR6 statement on ENSO SST variability is contrary to studies5,6,7 based on climate models participating in the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project8 (CMIP6). There was a lack of inter-model consensus among available models that participated in the previous instalments of CMIP5, unless model selection was applied on the basis of the realism of the simulated ENSO9,10. However, CMIP6 models exhibit a notably higher inter-model consensus than CMIP5 models under a high emission scenario7. Because ENSO SST variability underpins consequential ENSO-related climate variability and climate extremes within and outside the Pacific6,11,12, how ENSO SST variability might respond to greenhouse warming is a fundamental issue in climate change science7,9,13, with critical societal ramifications. As such, the cause for the discrepancy needs clarification.

    The AR6 assessment on ENSO change is based on evolution of ENSO SST variability in the central-to-eastern equatorial Pacific (Niño3.4 area: 5° N–5° S, 170° W–120° W) over 30-year periods, normalized by averaged variability over the 20-year current climate of 1995–2014 (Fig. 4.10a of Chapter 4, IPCC Report1) simulated by CMIP6 models under various emission scenarios. However, sampling ENSO SST variability over relatively short 30-year running periods would be subject to a strong influence from decadal climate fluctuations such that stochastic noise and butterfly effect can obscure the impact of greenhouse forcing14,15,16. Even on centennial timescales, ENSO variability is influenced by internal climate fluctuations17. Here we show that, contrary to the AR6 assessment, ENSO SST variability is stronger in the 21st century than in the 20th century in four plausible emission scenarios considered in the IPCC AR6.

    We construct monthly evolution of SST anomalies covering the period 1900–2099, under four shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP)8 in available CMIP6 models (39 models under SSP126, 42 under SSP245, 38 under SSP370, and 43 under SSP585) (Supplementary Table 1) (see ‘CMIP6 models’ in Methods). One experiment from each model is used as in the IPCC AR6. The SST anomalies are then quadratically detrended and averaged over traditional regions of ENSO SST indices. These include Niño3 (5° N–5° S, 150° W–90° W), Niño4 (5° N–5° S, 160° E–150° W) and Niño3.4, used to depict Eastern Pacific ENSO variability, Central Pacific ENSO variability, and their combined variability, respectively.

    Under SSP585, a ‘high emissions’ scenario in the 21st century (2000–2099) sees greater Niño3.4 variability than in the 20th century (1900–1999) in a total of 38 out of 43 (88.4%) models (Fig. 1a). The multi-model ensemble mean increase (16.1%) is statistically significant according to a Bootstrap method18 (see ‘Bootstrap test’ in Methods and Extended Data Fig. 1). A similar increase (15.7%) is obtained when inter-model differences in representing ENSO amplitude are removed (Extended Data Fig. 2). In terms of Niño3 and Niño4 SST variability, the level of inter-model consensus is also strong, both reaching 81.4%, consistent with recent studies5,6,7. Using more sophisticated indices leads to an even stronger consensus7.

    Fig. 1: An inter-model consensus on increased ENSO SST variability.
    figure 1

    a,b, ENSO Niño3.4 SST standard deviation (in oC) over the 20th century (1900–1999, green bars) and the 21st century (2000–2099, purple bars) from 43 available CMIP6 models under the SSP585 scenario (a), and from 39 CMIP6 models under the SSP126 scenario (b), with 88.4% and 87.2% of models respectively showing an increase in ENSO variability. The grey shading indicates models which do not simulate an increase. Also shown is the multi-model ensemble mean for each period. The error bars in the multi-model mean bars are defined as the value of the standard deviation of inter-model variability in the 20th and 21st centuries, determined by a Bootstrap test (see ‘Bootstrap test’ in Methods). The difference in the multi-model mean is statistically significant above the 95% confidence level.

    Inter-model consensus is seen in all four SSP emission scenarios (Extended Data Figs. 3, 4 and 5), ranging between 78.6–88.4% for Niño3.4, 76.2–81.6% for Niño3, and 73.8–81.4% for Niño4 across emission scenarios. In the SSP126 scenario (Fig. 1b), which represents a strong mitigation path under the Paris Agreement to limit warming to 1.5–2.0 °C relative to the pre-industrial level, a total of 34 out of 39 models (87.2%) generate an increase in Niño3.4 SST variability. The multi-model ensemble mean increase (11.7%) is statistically significant. Thus, even if the Paris Agreement target is achieved, an increase in ENSO SST variability is projected, consistent with previous results in terms of ENSO rainfall variability, which show a continuous increase after global mean temperature stabilizes4.

    As mentioned above, influence from internal variability could explain the lack of inter-model consensus in the AR614,15,16. Using statistics over another longer period, for example, 50 years of the current climate of 1965–2015 and the future climate of 2050–2099, an inter-model consensus emerges, with a total of 34 out of 43 (79.1%) models under SSP585, and 27 out of 39 (69.2%) models under SSP126, generating an increase in Niño3.4 SST variability (Fig. 2a,b). Thus, as the period for calculating ENSO statistics lengthens, the influence of internal variability tapers off, whereas the effect of greenhouse warming is better diagnosed.

    Fig. 2: Inter-model consensus on increased ENSO variability over a 50-year period.
    figure 2

    a,b, ENSO Niño3.4 SST variability (in oC) in 50-year period of the current climate ending 2014 (x axis) and 50-year period of the future climate ending 2099 (y axis), under SSP585 (a) and SSP126 (b), respectively. The number of models generating an increase/decrease in ENSO variability is indicated in the top-left/bottom-right corner. Using the period length of 50 years sees a total of 34 out of 43 (79.1%) models under SSP585, and 27 out of 39 (69.2%) models under SSP126 produce increased ENSO SST variability.

    Studies based on CMIP5 models alone, or on a combination of CMIP5 and a smaller set of earlier available CMIP6 models9,10, have found that models better simulating ENSO dynamics tend to generate increased ENSO SST variability. Nonlinear Bjerknes feedback is particularly important, in which once warm SST anomalies establish deep atmospheric convection in the equatorial eastern Pacific, the response of equatorial zonal wind anomalies increases nonlinearly to further sea surface warming19, amplifying El Niño growth10. Models generally underestimate this feedback10. As a result, an inter-model consensus of increased ENSO SST variability emerges in a subset of models that simulate a reasonably realistic nonlinear positive feedback10.

    Under greenhouse warming, an increased air–sea coupling arising from an enhanced upper equatorial ocean stratification underpins the increase in ENSO variability10. There is a tendency for models that simulate stronger nonlinear Bjerknes feedback to generate a greater future increase in ENSO variability, and vice versa, and this relationship is statistically significant above the 99% confidence level (Extended Data Fig. 6). As such, the skewness in three model outliers that project a decrease in ENSO variability in Figs. 1 and 2 is either small (UKESM1-0-LL) or negative (BCC-CSM2-MR, CESM2). Besides some improvements in the representation of the tropical Pacific climate20, more CMIP6 models simulate realistic ENSO nonlinear feedbacks7. The associated stronger air–sea coupling over the transient period of increasing greenhouse forcing probably contributes to the strong inter-model consensus even when all available models are used.

    Putting our results in a broader context of recent studies, we note findings of decreased ENSO variability21,22 in equilibrium state after an instantaneous doubling/quadrupling of CO2, which seemingly contradict our conclusion; thus, it is worth highlighting that our result of increased ENSO SST variability is based on the IPCC 21st century ‘transient’ warming scenarios. Further, ocean mesoscale eddy-induced vertical heat transport is part of ENSO dynamics22, but is not resolved in CMIP6 models; as such, whether or how incorporation of ocean mesoscale eddies alters our conclusion is not known. In addition, our conclusion is based solely on CMIP6 models, but a recent study based on 36 CMIP5 models and 20 CMIP6 models23 finds a large spread in the projected ENSO change with no inter-model consensus; the discrepancy suggests a sensitivity of our result to model generations. We also note that our result is opposite to an observed decline in ENSO variability since 1999/2000 (ref. 24); however, any greenhouse warming-induced ENSO variability change in the two decades since 1999/2000 might be masked by decadal variability and not yet detectable. Finally, the impact of North Pacific SST variability on ENSO is more realistically simulated in CMIP6 than in CMIP5, and the impact is enhanced under warmer background SSTs, contributing to enhanced future ENSO SST variability25.

    To conclude, in contrast to the IPCC AR6 assessment, there is in fact an inter-model consensus of increased ENSO SST variability in the 21st century from that of the 20th century under all four plausible SSP scenarios considered by the IPCC AR6 using CMIP6 models. The inter-model consensus is seen by comparing ENSO SST variability over the two 100-year periods of the 20th and 21st centuries. A long analysis period reduces the effect of internal variability, allowing a better detection of the greenhouse-forced effect. The increased inter-model consensus in CMIP6 is facilitated by improvements in the representation of ENSO processes, for example, nonlinear positive feedbacks, thus underscoring the importance of sustained model improvement in a multi-model approach toward reliable future projections. The inter-model consensus, particularly in the scenario with the strong mitigation pathway, highlights the need to consider the possibility of increased ENSO SST variability in addition to increased ENSO-induced rainfall variability.



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    Turkey opens laboratory to improve algae for jet fuel, in EU-backed clear aviation push


    Ministers hope Turkish Airlines will make its to start with biofuelled flight by the conclude of 2022, but experts are sceptical algae can make significantly of a dent in aviation emissions

    A laboratory to grow algae for jet gas opened in Istanbul this month, as section of an EU-backed force to slash carbon emissions from flying.

    The €6m ($6.8m) demonstration undertaking is funded by the European Union and Turkish govt. It will expand very simple drinking water-dependent vegetation, recognised as algae, in out of doors ponds and indoor tubes, and refine them into fuel and other goods.

    Following touring the web page on Boğaziçi University’s campus and handing out algae-based chocolates to reporters, Turkish power and natural methods minister Mustafa Varank reported: “The get the job done is underway for the use of biofuels generated in this article by Turkish Airlines. We want [them] to carry out [their] initially flight using biofuel from in this article ahead of the conclusion of 2022.”

    Authorities told Local climate Property News biofuel from algae experienced possible but expressed scepticism it could be developed on a scale to split aviation’s dependence on fossil fuels.

    Dan Rutherford is the aviation director of the Worldwide Council on Cleanse Transportation. He stated: “Algae jet fuel is form of like disco, [it] comes again every single ten years or so but in a worse variety. The US authorities has been picking at this for at minimum 30 years and has under no circumstances figured it out.”

    In 2011, a plane flew from Houston to Chicago driven by fuel which was 40% algae-based and 60% petroleum. Solazyme, the San Francisco-based firm which developed the gas, filed for personal bankruptcy in 2017.

    Aviation is a notoriously hard sector to clear up. Electric powered batteries, the principal alternative to land-based transportation, are significant and not highly effective enough to hold planes in the sky for prolonged intervals.

    Biofuels built from crops like soy contend with forests and farms for land. As h2o-primarily based crops, algae don’t pose that trouble – but they continue to have troubles.

    Named: The oil corporations gambling on local weather failure

    The major problem is competing on value. The cost of traditional jet gasoline from petroleum has doubled in the past 12 months to $830 a tonne. It is nonetheless more affordable than sustainable possibilities, which a McKinsey investigation in 2020 costed at $1,300-3,800/t, based on the production strategy.

    Berat Haznedaroglu, director of the Istanbul undertaking, advised Weather Household he was aiming to get the price tag down to $1,000/t for algae-derived fuel. He expects fascination in cleanse fuels to develop as governments, airways and airports consider to satisfy their local climate commitments.

    “There will be a mandate coming from [industry body] IATA and the governments,” he reported, incorporating that the enhanced expense of making use of clear fuels would be passed on to passengers. “I think it’s likely to be €10-15 ($11-17) for every ticket”.

    Brussels-based mostly thinktank Transport and Environment’s aviation director Andrew Murphy stated: “EU investment decision in sustainable aviation gas (SAF) improvement in Turkey is a great strategy to convey that aviation sector into the scope of its personal SAF steps these as ReFuelEU.”

    But, he added: “Algae has some issues because of to scalability, so both the EU and Turkey will need to fund feedstocks which can be additional simply expanded.” For illustration, he proposed hydrogen derived fuels like e-kerosene.

    United kingdom, Switzerland accused of undermining EU green treaty reforms

    Haznedaroglu said that hydrogen-derived fuels were being “a element of the toolbox” but that most hydrogen is even now produced from fossil fuels and “the research route for hydrogen is nonetheless a little powering algae”.

    The Istanbul facility is a university-based mostly demonstration task. It aims to prove the thought, not to turn into a large-scale provider itself.

    Another restricting component is the climate. A US strength office study located that algae generation costs “vary dramatically from summer to winter, even in locations like Florida”. Istanbul has an common maximum each day air temperature in January of 9C (48F).

    Haznedaroglu mentioned it would be preferable to increase algae in hotter southern Turkey, but there are cold-resistant forms of algae which survived modern snows in Istanbul. Algae grows in sites as cold as Iceland.

    The Istanbul facility will produce algae for foods supplements, animal feed and fertilisers as nicely as jet fuel.

    Rutherford claimed: “That’s a recurring theme on biofuels normally for aviation. You commence off saying ‘jet fuel’ and then you start off creating solutions and a great deal of them are quite fungible. They close up cosmetics, food, replacing petrochemicals.”

    Haznedaroglu mentioned that 80 cubic metres of the site’s 110 cubic metres are devoted to biofuel production in out of doors ponds. The other 30 cubic metres are the indoor tubes.

    These are far more pricey but fewer probably to be contaminated by air pollution. These are employed for items like food stuff nutritional supplements in which preventing contamination is especially important.



    Joe Lo



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    Unintended consequences of climate change mitigation for African river basins


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    Inequitable patterns of US flood risk in the Anthropocene


    Hazard model

    The physical flood data used to calculate risk in this paper were published in Bates et al.23, itself an evolution of the first spatially continuous US flood model presented by Wing et al.20 and the global-scale modelling methods of Sampson et al.34. In this section, the main methods and model validation studies are outlined. For more information, the reader is referred to Bates et al.23.

    The flood inundation model, at its core, solves the local inertial formulation of the shallow water equations in two dimensions (based on LISFLOOD-FP)35,36 over a regularly spaced 1″ (~20–30 m in the United States) grid. This formulation has been shown to produce answers indistinguishable from the full solution of the shallow water equations for typical flood inundation problems (that is, subcritical flows), given typical input data errors35,37. Crucially, it provides these answers much faster than full solutions or other common simplifications of the shallow water equations (for example, the diffusive wave)38, owing to its linear scaling of stable time step with grid size35. Alongside vectorization and parallelization of code39, accurate computational hydraulics can thus be deployed at high resolutions over large spatial domains with practicable runtimes. The set of return period hazard maps at 1″ resolution used in this analysis took about two months on a ~2,000-core compute cluster.

    The 1″ grid is populated with elevation values principally obtained from the US Geological Survey (USGS) National Elevation Dataset. This dataset consists of a plurality of high-accuracy LiDAR data, covering 39% of the contiguous US land area and two-thirds of its population. The National Elevation Dataset is further infilled by subnational LiDAR terrain data where available. To take full advantage of 1/9″ (~2–3 m in the United States) resolution data where it is available—rather than the degraded 1″ variant on which the hydraulic model was run—a downscaling algorithm is implemented. Simulating hydraulics explicitly at 1/9″ resolution would require an intractable >1,000 times greater compute time. Instead, Bates et al. downscale the simulated 1″ water surface elevations onto a 1/9″ grid of ground surface elevations, thus improving property-level model predictions40.

    River channels are represented in one dimension, decoupled from the two-dimensional grid to enable river channels of any size (including <1″ width) to be modelled36. A flow accumulation grid was forged using the composite elevation data alongside the USGS National Hydrography Dataset, ensuring correct alignment of one-dimensional channels with their two-dimensional valleys. River bathymetry (particularly bed elevation) is mostly unobserved over large spatial domains, but since channels convey the bulk of flood flows, the approximation of their bathymetric properties is essential. Channels are thus parameterized under the assumption that they can convey a certain return period discharge (generally the two-year flow, rising to five-year in arid regions), with their bed elevations thus estimated using an inverted gradually varied flow solver (which solves for water height rather than discharge)41.

    Return period discharges for channel bed estimation, and for the extreme flows to simulate flooding, are computed using a regional flood frequency analysis (RFFA) based on the methods of Smith et al.42 and further extended in Bates et al.23. This involved pooling almost 7,000 USGS river gauges into proximal and hydrologically similar groups to compute an index flow for every cell on the flow accumulation grid (with an upstream area >50 km2). Since flow records are generally too short to understand extreme flow behaviour, the RFFA substitutes time for space by again pooling hydrologically similar river gauges to derive growth curves. These curves define the proportional change in a given index flow to get a given return period flow. Bates et al. report a 6% and 29% error for 10-year and 100-year flows, respectively, probably within observational error for gauge-based extremes43. In coupling channel conveyance to the RFFA, errors in flow estimation are implicitly dampened to some extent. If the RFFA overestimates flows at a given location, the channel will be larger to account for this, and vice versa.

    Pluvial modelling is executed to simulate the flashier flood response on smaller headwater streams (<50 km2 drainage area) and due to surface water flooding directly through a rain-on-grid approach. The boundary conditions take the form of intensity–duration–frequency estimations from National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Atlas 14. The maximum flood depth from 1 h, 6 h and 12 h pluvial simulations form the hazard map for each return period. River channels are explicitly represented in the pluvial simulations, allowing channels to convey water and drain floodplains during simulated extreme precipitation events.

    To account for climate change, both up to 2020 and to 2050, we adopt a change factor approach. A large synthetic catalogue of hurricane events based on the methods of Emanuel et al.44 and Feldmann et al.45 was simulated using seven downscaled general circulation model scenarios to yield 55,000 years of synthetic hurricanes for each time horizon. We then extracted 55,000 annual maximum daily rainfall accumulations. We used 21 general circulation model ensemble members from National Aeronautics and Space Administration Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP) to create an equivalent 55,000 years of rainfall annual maxima via sampling from fitted generalized extreme value distributions. For each synthetic year, the maximum hurricane or NEX-GDDP annual maximum was retained. Rainfall changes with respect to a historical baseline simulation period (1980–2000) were computed for the 2020 and 2050 climate states, on the basis of RCP4.5. These changes directly perturb the historical pluvial intensity–duration–frequency curves outlined above.

    For the fluvial model, these rainfall time series were routed through calibrated Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV) hydrological models for ~700 US river catchments to generate 55,000 years of synthetic streamflows for historical, 2020 and 2050 climate states. Change factors with respect to the historical run were again computed, and the regionalization procedure outlined above (for the RFFA) iterated change factors for every US river. Changes were then applied directly to each RFFA-derived return period flow.

    For coastal modelling, the historical water levels from 68 detrended NOAA tide gauges (with hurricane events stripped out) were extracted and adjusted to 2020 mean sea levels on the basis of Kopp et al.5. Then, 55,000 years of synthetic non-hurricane extreme water levels were generated at each site, and the Global Tide and Surge Reanalysis was used to interpolate between them46. The pressure and wind fields from the above hurricane event sets were used to drive the GeoCLAW coastal flood model to produce 55,000 years of synthetic hurricane extreme water levels47. At coasts, flood inundation occurs due to the joint probabilities that riverine and oceanic flooding co-occur. Using the stochastic model of Quinn et al.48, we link the return periods of univariate hurricane and non-hurricane fluvial and coastal floods to the return period of the synthetic multivariate event. Flood inundation maps at coasts thus represent the compound impact of fluvial and coastal floods at each return period.

    Flood defences are represented in a variety of ways, wrought from a painstaking scouring of national and subnational databases of flood adaptations across the United States. Levees from the USACE National Levee Database, as well as other projects identified locally, were incorporated explicitly into the model. The function of dams from the USACE National Inventory of Dams was used to adjust the bankfull return periods of channels. Other grey, green and coastal adaptations were also incorporated. See Bates et al.23 for further details.

    Bates et al. carried out a number of model validation exercises for the predicted physical hazard. They compared the model to high-quality FEMA flood maps, where they exist, finding 78% similarity between these local-scale engineering models and the large-scale flood model, rising to 82% in coastal regions. Given typical errors associated with flood modelling at any scale, Bates et al. refer to this degree of similarity as within error. This test of the modelled 100-year flood was repeated for the 100-year flood maps generated by the Iowa Flood Center, finding 87% similarity to these higher-accuracy models. For the 5-year flood—more difficult to model owing to its modest size and thus sensitivity to channel parameterization and microtopography—the similarity between Bates et al. and the Iowa Flood Center was 69%. Wing et al.24 furthered the validation of the Bates et al. model by simulating historical flood events and comparing them to observations. They found roughly 87% similarity between modelled inundation and observations, a mean bias of 0.17 m, and a mean absolute error of 0.96 m compared with observed flood depths. These studies thus demonstrate the fitness for purpose of the Bates et al. hazard model in a national-scale risk calculation framework.

    Flood inundation model uncertainty is typically explored via Monte Carlo simulations, where uncertain parameters are systematically varied, the model is run multiple times, and an ensemble of depth predictions are considered. Given that all available compute resource is devoted to deterministic predictions of the highest possible accuracy (the alternative is a severely degraded model ensemble), it is unfeasible to consider uncertainty in a model of this scale and resolution using Monte Carlo analysis. Instead, we use past validation studies to inform a distribution of flood depths at every building location. Past studies have indicated that the hazard model is unbiased (it overpredicts a given benchmark as much as it underpredicts)23,24, so we assume that the simulated flood depth at a given building represents the central estimate. A normal distribution of flood depths with a standard deviation of 1.0 m, based on the results of Wing et al.24, is then assumed for each building. Locations that are modelled as dry are given depth distributions on the basis of their height above the nearest flood water surface. For example, a location that is 0.6 m higher than a proximal water surface has a ~27% chance of experiencing a positive water depth: its normal depth distribution has a standard deviation of 1.0 m, centred on −0.6 m.

    Building data

    The National Structure Inventory (NSI) defined the exposure in this assessment. The NSI is a database developed by the USACE to support their dam and levee safety programmes, as well as real-time consequence assessments and planning functions for risk mitigation. The NSI is designed to represent every structure in the United States as a point, as accurately placed and attributed as possible. The product is described in more detail in USACE documentation49. This study used the updated NSI v.2, which is restricted by a license; therefore, no results are shown below the census block level. This version of the NSI was developed in 2019 by coordinating many datasets such as the Microsoft building footprints layer, the CoreLogic parcel database, the ESRI business layer, census data and many others to derive a best-of-breed inventory fit for evaluating natural disasters. The inventory is described by occupancy types, which are linked to standard depth–damage relationships to understand their vulnerability to flooding. Valuations are based on a variety of sources and are designed to represent depreciated replacement value.

    One of the more influential variables regarding building attribution for flood risk modelling is the elevation of the first occupied floor with respect to the ground surface. This modelling effort leveraged stratified surveys conducted by USACE economists to describe the range of uncertainty in foundation height given foundation type. This project overrode the base NSI foundation height estimate using the distribution of foundation height estimates from the surveyed data, specifying foundation height as triangular distributions. The distributions were sampled randomly during the Monte Carlo analysis.

    Population data

    The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) EnviroAtlas programme produced a 30-m-resolution dasymetric map of contiguous US populations, which we intersected with the multifrequency hazard data. Here we leverage the 1″ model output (prior to downscaling) deterministically to align with the population data, thus yielding a median estimate of average annual flood exposure. The EPA data were generated via reallocating 2010 US census block populations to 30 m cells on the basis of maps of land cover and slope. The projections of future populations are drawn directly from the EPA Integrated Climate and Land-Use Scenarios projections50. This involves the use of a 90-m-resolution spatial allocation model to assign county-level population change estimates (from a demographic model) to housing units. Fertility, mortality and migration are the key variables of the demographic model, used to project county-level cohorts split by gender, ethnicity, and age. Datasets on population, housing units, non-residential land use, groundwater availability, and transport infrastructure form inputs to the spatial allocation model, which requires parameters such as household size, land-use demand, and travel times to downscale county-level populations to the 90 m grid. Given the use of the RCP4.5 climate scenario, we employ the complementary SSP2 projection of demographic change. This represents a medium-growth scenario, following US Census Bureau projections of the contiguous US growing to almost 400 million people by 2050. Models of socio-economic change are commonly laden with assumptions—for instance, the continuation of historical trends in migration patterns, land-use change, and demand for transport and amenities. The data used thus represent a single plausible population projection, out of many possibilities, based on historically derived model parameters. As such, these projections of change are highly uncertain, not least since they are predicated on the continuation of historical development patterns and how growing populations consume and interact with impervious surfaces. However, conclusions drawn with these data are aggregated to the state and national levels, where substantial local uncertainties will, to some extent, cancel each other out. The results demonstrate that plausible patterns of future development are the overwhelming driver of increased flood risk, which, in spite of projection uncertainty, is a conclusion that cannot be ignored. For more information, the reader is referred to the EPA report50.

    Vulnerability functions

    The vulnerability functions used for this report were sourced from a curated database developed to support a variety of the USACE Hydrologic Engineering Center’s flood risk modelling activities. The residential damage functions are based on those generated by Wing et al.25. They use damage observations from over two million flood claims from the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) to derive probabilistic depth–damage functions for residential buildings, with modifiers including occupancy type, number of storeys and presence of a basement. Since the NFIP covers only residential property, non-residential functions are selected from the HAZUS database from previous USACE projects, largely on the basis of expert elicitation51. These functions, developed by the Galveston District of the USACE, probabilistically represent damage to a variety of non-residential occupancies, including commercial, industrial, agricultural and public buildings.

    For this analysis, the damage functions were leveraged probabilistically to account for the variable damage response to certain flood depths. The curves were then input into an open-source consequence engine developed for this project called go-fathom52. The go-fathom project referenced an open-source consequence engine developed by the USACE called go-consequences53, and overrode base behaviours regarding foundation heights and damage functions as described here. Damages were computed for the 5-, 20-, 100-, 250- and 500-year return periods, which were then integrated using trapezoidal Riemann sums to compute an AAL for each location. Two important assumptions were adopted. First, no damages were accrued between the most frequent damage and the annual flood (100% annual exceedance probability) when integrating. If damages did not occur until the 100-year flood, no damages would be assumed until that frequency. The second is that for the space between the 500-year and the ∞-year (0% annual exceedance probability) frequency damage, the value of the 500-year damage was used as the maximum allowable damage (that is, no extrapolation). Both of these assumptions tend to reduce the estimated damages, so our estimates should be conservative. These are both standard assumptions in flood risk estimation but are important to state, as alternatives used in their place tend to dramatically overstate risk.

    Ensemble loss calculation

    Uncertain hazard, exposure, and vulnerability distributions are sampled to produce an ensemble of flood loss estimates. To span the variable of the greatest contribution to the uncertainty in the output, a simple stratification approach was used for the uncertainty in flood depth. The other parameters were sampled randomly to represent that the parameters are uncorrelated. The process is described as follows: 100 equally spaced flood depth quantile samples at a given location are combined with 100 randomly sampled foundation height estimates, which, in turn, are randomly combined with 100 randomly generated vulnerability curve samples. The sampling quantiles are held constant for each return period of a given sample, yielding 100 estimates of AAL for every building in the United States.

    Subsequent aggregations of uncertain location-level flood losses are sensitive to assumptions relating to their correlation in space. We assume that loss uncertainty is locally spatially dependent within USGS HUC10 catchment zones (Supplementary Fig. 2). For example, if the hazard model overpredicts flood depth at a given location, it probably does so for neighbouring locations too. However, this assumption is weakly justified, so we illustrate national flood losses under assumptions of complete nationwide dependence and total location-level independence in the Supplementary Information. Central estimates of US flood risk are insensitive to uncertainty correlation assumptions, while the range of risk estimates is highly sensitive to them.

    Both the magnitude and the correlation of flood risk modelling uncertainty warrant further attention. However, this study approaches the ceiling for its representation in a model of such fidelity and spatial scale, given current data and compute constraints.

    Census tract data

    Demographic data split by census tract were obtained from the 2019 ACS five-year roll-up. The proportion of census tract populations that fell into a specific socio-economic grouping was computed by dividing the counts of each group by the total census tract population. The groups examined were (1) below 100% of the poverty level (B06012_002); (2) not Hispanic or Latino, White alone (B03002_003); (3) not Hispanic or Latino, Black or African American alone (B03002_004); (4) Hispanic or Latino (B03002_012); (5) not Hispanic or Latino, American Indian and Alaska Native alone (B03002_006); and (6) other racial identities that do not fall into the groups mentioned here (2–5), which were combined into an ‘other’ group, calculated from the remaining census tract population yet to be allocated to a group (B01001_001).

    ACS data are known to produce inaccurate estimates of socio-economic variables for some census tracts, with estimate quality linked to demography and geography54,55. We mitigated these localized uncertainties in a number of ways. First, five-year estimates were used to favour precision over currency. However, the demographic data used in this analysis are unlikely to deviate substantially across these timescales from one-year or three-year estimates. Second, we focus on the proportional demographic constitution of census tracts, de-emphasizing potentially inaccurate absolute counts. Third, and most important, the granularity of the data was reduced (in line with the recommendations of Folch et al.55) by pooling census tracts into ordinal quintile groups of a given attribute. With conclusions drawn at the scale of five nationwide groups rather than individual census tracts, the impact of local uncertainties is minimized. Overall, the ACS data employed are fit for the purpose to which they were put, in line with US Census Bureau guidelines56.



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    Author Correction: Potential impacts and challenges of border carbon adjustments


    Affiliations

    1. Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Carl von Ossietzky University of Oldenburg, Oldenburg, Germany

      Christoph Böhringer

    2. Department of Spatial Economics, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands

      Carolyn Fischer

    3. Department of Economics, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON, Canada

      Carolyn Fischer

    4. Development Research Group, World Bank, Washington, DC, USA

      Carolyn Fischer

    5. School of Economics and Business, Norwegian University of Life Sciences, Ås, Norway

      Knut Einar Rosendahl

    6. Statistics Norway, Oslo, Norway

      Knut Einar Rosendahl

    7. College of Agricultural & Life Sciences, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI, USA

      Thomas Fox Rutherford

    Corresponding author

    Correspondence to
    Christoph Böhringer.



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    Good News in History, January 31


    25 years ago today, one of the most impactful video games in history, Final Fantasy VII is released to the Sony Playstation. Always near to the top of any discussion of greatest video game ever, FF7 revolutionized what a game could be—namely an equivalent to great works of literature in which one acts out the characters’ choices rather than observing them in words. It was the first video game to introduce that kind of storytelling depth, one of the first to compliment game play with exceptional music, and the first mega-dose of Japanese animation culture to American audiences. It sold 13.3 million copies; the soundtrack alone sold 180,000 copies, and has been named the greatest video game of all time by multiple publications. READ more about its impact across generations… (1997)

    – PHOTO CREDIT: the characters with the protagonist Cloud in the middle, and the antagonist, Sephiroth, to the far right.

    A role-playing game, FF7 focuses on the story of Cloud Strife, a mercenary hired by an eco-terrorist organization to stop a world-controlling megacorporation from using the planet’s life essence as an energy source. An awfully relevant plot in today’s climate-climate. Events send Cloud and his allies in pursuit of Sephiroth, a former member of the corporation who seeks to destroy the planet. Sephiroth is regarded as one of video game history’s most impactful villains, and the scene in FF7 in which he strikes down the female protagonist, with little warning, is considered one of the most significant character deaths in video gaming, a difficult feat since most video games involve violence to some degree.

    After its release, GameSpot commented after its release that “never before have technology, playability, and narrative combined as well as in Final Fantasy VII,” and that FF7 was “the RPG that would influence every role-playing game that would follow.” in 2005 Electronic Gaming Monthly said it was “the first RPG to surpass, instead of copy, movielike storytelling” and taught gamers “how to cry.”

     

    MORE Good News on This Day:

    • Composer Franz Schubert was born in Vienna, Austria; perhaps best known for his haunting Ellens dritter Gesang, the beloved melody used today as a setting for the traditional Catholic prayer Ave Maria (1797)
    • The US Congress passed the Thirteenth Amendment to the United States Constitution, abolishing slavery and submits it to the states for ratification by two-thirds of them (1865)
    • 3M began marketing Scotch Tape (1930)
    • U.S. President Bill Clinton authorized a $20 billion loan to Mexico to stabilize the country’s economy—money that was paid back in full in 1997, three years earlier than required (1995)
    • Myanmar opened its first parliament in more than two decades (2011)

    And, Happy 41st Birthday to singer, actor and record producer Justin Timberlake. Born to a gospel choir director in 1981 in Tennessee, Timberlake’s pop albums and other talents have won him more than a dozen Grammy and Emmy awards—including, for his comedy sketches while hosting Saturday Night Live. He later gained notoriety on the big screen when he co-starred in The Social Network. (1981)

    Justin Timberlake 2014 - by freetopone
    By freetopone, CC license, 2014

    101 years ago today, the 3-time Tony Award-winning musical-comedy performer, Carol Channing was born.

    Carol Channing publicity shot

    She was best known for her unique girlish voice and comedic timing used to great effect when she starred in Hello, Dolly! and Gentlemen Prefer Blondes. An ovarian cancer survivor, she wrote a 2002 autobiography, Just Lucky I Guess, and she was featured in a 2012 documentary, entitled Larger Than Life. In 2003, she married her junior high-school sweetheart, who reunited with her after she mentioned him fondly in her memoir. She died on January 15, 2019, in Rancho Mirage, California. (1921–2019)

    102 years ago today, Arizona Congressman Stewart Udall was born. He became Secretary of the Interior from 1961–1969 and saved millions of acres of wilderness and waterways.

    Under his leadership, the US government expanded federal public lands, adding four national parks, six national monuments, eight national seashores and lakeshores, nine recreation areas, 20 historic sites, and 56 national wildlife refuges—including Canyonlands National Park in Utah, North Cascades National Park in Washington, Redwood National Park in California, the Great Swamp National Wildlife Refuge, and the Appalachian Scenic Trail stretching from Georgia to Maine. (1920-2010)

    Along with his brother, Rep. “Mo” Udall (D–AZ), Stewart played a key role in the enactment of many environmental laws such as the Clear Air, Water Quality, and Clean Water Restoration Acts and Amendments, the Wilderness Act of 1964, the Endangered Species Preservation Act of 1966, the Land and Water Conservation Fund Act of 1965, the Solid Waste Disposal Act of 1965, the National Trail System Act, and Wild and Scenic Rivers Act.

    82 years ago today, the first Social Security check was distributed in the United States.

    The retirement payment was issued to 65-year-old Ida May Fuller in Ludlow, Vermont. The newly retired legal secretary started collecting benefits of $22.54 per month (a total of $22,888)—until she died at 100 years old. The new Social Security insurance program promised to provide monthly income to seniors during retirement, disability, or upon the death of spouse, and has been doing that for 80 years now. (1940)

    And, 103 years ago, baseball hero Jackie Robinson was born in Cairo, Georgia. He made history in 1947 as the first black baseball player to appear in a Major League game. Despite experiencing terrible racism from players and fans around him, Jackie stayed mostly graceful and earned peoples’ admiration–both on and off the field. Athletically, he performed magnificently and won the Rookie of the Year award. Two years later, he won the MVP award, with a .342 batting average. Following a storied career, his Dodger jersey number—42—was retired in tribute leaguewide by every club.

    His remarkable life story has been told in books and pictures—especially notable is the Hollywood film 42, starring Chadwick Boseman. Documentary filmmaker Ken Burns produced a 4-hour series for PBS. WATCH a video… (1919)

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    Good News in History, January 30


    32 years ago, Ray Kurzweil published The Age of Intelligent Machines, described as a tour-de-force in its time, in which the author predicted with deeply commendable accuracy, the rise of many of our technological staples today. A transhumanist and futurist, Kurzweil doesn’t lament the rise of artificial intelligence in the book, but rather takes a neutral sort of stance on the subject, saying that AI’s clear-out of human labor in sectors like communications, innovation, teaching, and transportation, will force us all to think more deeply on what it means to be human. READ how many predictions came true… (1990)

    – PHOTO CREDIT: Raymond Kurzweil in 2005. CC 1.0.

    Kurzweil explains that the “functionality per unit cost” in the computer industry has been increasing exponentially for decades. He says computer memory costs one one-hundred millionth of what it did in 1950, for example. If these trends continue, Kurzweil argues, we will see a “translating telephone” by 2010, intelligent assistants by the mid-1990s, and a “completely driverless car” by “well into the first half” of the 21st century. He anticipates we will prove our identity by finger and voice prints as well.

    “Facts alone do not constitute knowledge. For information to become knowledge, it must incorporate the relationships between ideas. And for the knowledge to be useful, the links describing how concepts interact must be easily accessed, updated, and manipulated,” Kurzweil writes regarding the claim that AI can’t access the level of understanding to create art or knowledge. As a high schooler Kurzweil programed a computer to create music on its own, getting the opportunity to show computing’s capabilities and disprove this notion in a demonstration on the CBS television show I’ve Got a Secret, in 1965.

    MORE Good News on this Date:

    • Thomas Jefferson offered to restock the shelves of the Library of Congress, which had been destroyed in the War of 1812, selling Congress more than 6,000 books from his own library–twice as many as had burned (1815)
    • First airplane rescue at sea near Cuba via USS Terry (1911)
    • Happy 71st birthday to Phil Collins, the drummer, and lead singer of Genesis (1951)
    • The first successful trials to treat sickle-cell disease took place at the U.S. National Institutes of Health (1995)
    • Belgium legally recognized same-sex marriage (2003)
    • Iraqis voted in their country’s first free election in a half-century (2005)

    And, 77 years ago today, 500 Allied prisoners of war from the Bataan Death March were liberated during World War II from a Japanese POW camp in the Philippines. 121 US Rangers, supported by several hundred Filipino guerrilla fighters, trekked 30 miles, then raided the Cabanatuan prison camp using intelligence gained from Alamo Scouts disguised as locals. ‘The Great Raid’ lasted thirty minutes. (1945)

    Photo by Trish Overton in 2008, CC license

    Happy Birthday to the great actor Gene Hackman who turns 92 years old today. Nominated for five Academy Awards, he won the Best Actor statue at age 41—after years of personal struggle and hardship—for his role as a NYC cop in the critically-acclaimed thriller The French Connection. He won a second Oscar for his role in the 1992 Clint Eastwood Western, Unforgiven.

    He was nominated again for his gripping portrayal of an FBI agent in Mississippi Burning (1988), and is also saluted for major contributions to hit movies such as The Firm, Get Shorty, Enemy of the State (a GNN favorite co-starring Will Smith), The Royal Tenenbaums, and The Conversation.

    He retired in 2004, but he went on to write 6 novels as an author—three historical fiction novels, a Depression-era tale of murder, and a tale of love and revenge set in the Old West entitled Payback at Morning Peak. His most recently-published, in 2013, was a police thriller called Pursuit. (1930) WATCH the surprisingly exciting trailer for The French Connection…

    On this day in 1969, The Beatles played their last public concert, performing on the rooftop of Apple Records, surprising lunchtime pedestrians on a blustery cold day. The group, which invited Billy Preston to sit in on keyboards, hadn’t played in public for three years. The unannounced London appearance was eventually broken up by the police, but all the memorable scenes (including people gazing up in the streets) were filmed for a documentary—a total of nine takes of five songs: Get Back, Don’t Let Me Down, I’ve Got a Feeling, One After 909, and Dig a Pony. WATCH the iconic film below…

    (Around 2:15 into the film you see the people on the streets start strategizing to get a glimpse, including an old gentleman with a bowler hat and pipe, who determinedly ascends a ladder on a nearby roof.)

    The Beatles realized that the concert would be shut down, as police ascended to the roof, but continued to play for several more minutes. Paul McCartney improvised the lyrics of his song “Get Back” to reflect the situation, “You’ve been playing on the roofs again, and you know your Momma doesn’t like it, she’s gonna have you arrested!” The concert came to an end with the conclusion of Get Back, with John Lennon saying, “I’d like to say thank you on behalf of the group and ourselves, and I hope we’ve passed the audition.”

    196 years ago today, a groundbreaking piece of civil engineering debuted– the massive Menai Bridge opened, cutting nine hours from the journey between Wales and London.

    A triumph for its designer and engineer Thomas Telford, it was the biggest suspension bridge in the world at the time. Sixteen huge chains held up 579 feet of deck, allowing 100 feet of clear space beneath for tall ships navigating the seaway underneath.

    With a length of almost 6 football fields (520-meters), it spans the dangerous waters of the Menai Strait, connecting the island of Anglesey to the Wales mainland. (1826)

    – Featured image by Rhys Morgan Jones, CC license

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    Good News on This Day in History


    75 years ago today, Desert Island Discs first aired on BBC radio when Roy Plomley asked a guest, called a ‘castaway’, to choose eight recordings (along with a book and luxury item) that they would take if they were to be stranded on a desert island. Now celebrating a quarter-less than a century of airtime, today’s host Kristy Young interviews iconic brit David Beckham, while the BBC website features plenty of additional multi-media content like the funniest desert island discs, or what the most picked piece was. It’s now the longest running UK radio show with more than 3,000 episodes recorded. LISTEN to Judi Dench explain the reason behind the most-requested disc. (1942)

    British broadcasters have voted it as the greatest-ever radio show in the country. The original host Roy Plomley was incredibly strict with the rules, which stated that guests choose one luxury, which must be inanimate and of no use in escaping the island or allowing communication from outside. Guests are automatically given their preferred religious text, and the complete works of William Shakespeare. Because in 1942 there were only gramophone recordings, to this day guests are required to select a single piece (Comfortably Numb) rather than a whole record (The Wall).

    Future hosts have relaxed these rules, occasionally allowing pets, and in the case of John Cleese, the show’s third host Sue Lawley allowed him to take his Monty Python co-star Michael Palin with him, on the condition that he was dead and stuffed.

    Over the show’s first 60 years, Beethoven’s Ode to Joy was selected most-often, although a more recent poll found The Lark Ascending as the piece the most requested piece by castaways, perhaps, as Dame Judy Dench points out, because if its essential Englishness. It has since spawned duplicate programs such as one in Houston, and another in the state of Maine. It also remains an extremely good game at parties.

    MORE Good News on this Date:

    • W. C. Fields, the comedic actor was born in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (1880) (1942)
    • Sleeping Beauty, Walt Disney’s animated feature fairy tale, premiered (1959)
    • The first direct commercial flights from mainland China to Taiwan since 1949 (2005)
    • President Obama signed his first major piece of legislation, the Lilly Ledbetter Fair Pay Restoration Act, which made it easier for people to get equal pay regardless of their gender, race, or age (2009)
    • The Supreme Constitutional Court of Egypt ruled that people who do not adhere to one of the three government-recognized religions are still eligible to receive government identity documents (2009)

    On this day in 1936, the Baseball Writers’ Association of America inducted the first players into the Baseball Hall of Fame:1936_Hall_of_Fame_Inductees

    Ty Cobb, Babe Ruth, Honus Wagner, Christy Mathewson and Walter Johnson. The National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum in Cooperstown, New York would open three years later.

    And, on this day in 1958, actors Paul Newman and Joanne Woodward began their storied marriage saying ‘I do’ to a partnership—rare for Hollywood superstars—that lasted 50 years, until Mr. Newman’s death ten years ago. The two co-starred in 11 films, including The Long, Hot Summer in 1958, which led to their marriage—and a family in Connecticut with three daughters.

    Newman and Woodward
    By Kate Gabrielle, CC license

    As humanitarians, Newman and Woodward established the Hole in the Wall Gang 30 years ago, a nonprofit camp that has welcomed free of charge 20,000 children and their families who are coping with cancer or serious illness.

    And, on this day in 1929, Dorothy Harrison Eustis established The Seeing Eye in the US, the first school organized to train dogs for assisting the blind. By the end of her first year, 17 blind men and women had gained independence because they were alongside their “Seeing Eye dogs” (a trademarked name). Founded in Nashville, today The Seeing Eye, is located in Morristown, New Jersey, and last year the nonprofit group reached a milestone pairing their 17,000th partners. And, the cost is the best part.

    Seeing Eye cofounders Morris Frank and Dorothy Harrison Eustis with Buddy, the first Seeing Eye dog.

    The cost for one of their life-changing service dogs has remain unchanged since the early 1930s: The Seeing Eye tuition is $150, and just $1 for veterans of the military, which covers the dog,  its equipment, travel expenses, room and board and specialized training in the care and use of their dog.

    And, 136 years ago today, Karl Benz patented the first successful gasoline-driven automobile. The Benz Patent-Motorwagen was built in Karlsruhe, Germany, designed to be propelled by an internal combustion engine with an original cost of around $150 (equivalent to $4,268 today).

    Benz’s wife, Bertha, financed the development of the 3-wheeled automobile, which had a rear-mounted engine and many new inventions. The steel-spoked wheels and solid rubber tires were Benz’s own design. Steering was by way of a toothed rack that pivoted the unsprung front wheel. Fully elliptic springs were used at the back along with a beam axle and chain drive on both sides. A simple belt system served as a single-speed transmission. The chassis was improved in 1887 with new wooden-spoke wheels, a fuel tank, and a manual leather shoe brake on the rear wheels.

    Wanting to demonstrate its usability to the public, Bertha, without telling her husband, drove the Patent-Motorwagen No. 3 on the first long-distance auto road trip with her two sons on August 5, 1888. It took the 39-year-old 12 hours to reach her parents house 65 miles away.

    The round-trip route today, (121-miles/194km) from Mannheim to Heidelberg to Pforzheim and back, is marked with official government signposts as a Heritage Scenic Route—and the ‘Bertha Benz Memorial Route’ is traveled by a parade of antique automobiles celebrating her historic trip every two years. WATCH a dramatization of what happened when she ran out of gas! (1886)

    With no fuel tank and only a 4.5-litre supply in the carburetor, the trailblazing woman had to find ligroin, the petroleum equivalent needed for the car to run, which is how the pharmacy in Wiesloch, Germany, became the first gas station in the world. Bertha’s pioneering road trip attracted worldwide attention and brought her husband’s inventions the promotion they needed to succeed.

    Also, 177 years ago today, Edgar Allan Poe’s iconic poem The Raven was first published. Printed in the New York Evening Mirror, it made Poe a household name almost immediately, and turned the writer into a national celebrity. The narrative poem depicts a mysterious bird’s midnight visit to a distraught lover.

    Noted for its musicality and supernatural ambiance, the talking raven accompanies the man’s slow descent into madness. Poe wanted to create a poem that would appeal to both critical and popular tastes, so he uses plenty of rhyme, alliteration, and repetition—a constant use of the word ‘Nevermore’.

    Though it made Poe popular in his lifetime, and resulted in invitations to recite The Raven and lecture in public and private social gatherings, it did not deliver financial success—even though evermore one of the most famous poems. READ a short excerpt…

    (The opening stanza)
    Once upon a midnight dreary, while I pondered, weak and weary,
    Over many a quaint and curious volume of forgotten lore—
    While I nodded, nearly napping, suddenly there came a tapping,
    As of some one gently rapping, rapping at my chamber door.
    “‘Tis some visiter,” I muttered, “tapping at my chamber door—
    Only this and nothing more.”

    (More lines)
    Nothing farther then he uttered — not a feather then he fluttered —
    Till I scarcely more than muttered, “Other friends have flown before —
    On the morrow he will leave me, as my hopes have flown before.”
    Quoth the raven, “Nevermore.”

    The name of the professional American football team Baltimore Ravens was inspired by the poem, chosen in a fan contest to honor the hometown of Edgar Allan Poe, who spent his early career in the Maryland city—and was buried there four years after the famous poem was published. (1845)

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    Covering COVID-19 now and in the potential — A self-directed class for journalists


    &#13

    Created in collaboration with the WHO, UNESCO and UNDP, this course — created by the University of Texas-Austin&#13
    and the Knight Heart for Journalism in the Americas — helps journalists to improve their coverage of the pandemic.  The system is made available in English, &#13
    Arabic,  French, Portuguese, &#13
    Russian and Spanish and is self-directed. (Chinese and Hindi self-directed variations are also in the operates and will be posted below in the&#13
    coming months.) The training course is no cost and accessible to journalists who are interested in acquiring new information and sources to boost your protection and understanding of the pandemic.

    The program was at first introduced in May perhaps 2020 as a 4-7 days digital large open up on the web study course (MOOC). Maryn McKenna, a former CNN reporter, created, curated, and offered the articles for the training course, which incorporates movie classes, readings, exercises,&#13
    and more. 

    The class elements are damaged up into five modules:

    Intro Module: Introduction to the study course and the outline of topics

    Module 1: Where did COVID-19 come from?

    Module 2: Covering COVID-19 suitable now

    Module 3: The hope for solutions and vaccines

    Module 4: Coronavirus: The way ahead

     

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    The hype machine behind a $70,000 carbon credit


    UK-based cryptocurrency venture Save Planet Earth has convinced investors it can make them rich and fix the climate, but its tree-planting vision is a long way from reality

    When a carbon credit representing a single tonne of CO2 sold as an NFT for an eye-watering $70,000 at auction, carbon market experts were bewildered.

    The credit was generated in Indonesia from the Rimba Raya reserve, one of the world’s largest initiatives to prevent emissions by protecting tropical peat swamp forests.

    At the time, millions of credits from the same project were trading on the market for less than $20 each. In the first half of 2021, the price of a forest carbon offset averaged just $4.73/t. Why would anyone pay such a huge premium?

    To find answers, Climate Home News dived into a community of cryptocurrency investors, connecting on messaging apps Telegram and Discord. Members were buzzing about the prospects of Save Planet Earth (SPE), the UK-based cryptocurrency venture behind the auction.

    Since November 2021, SPE has sold 1,000 limited edition carbon credits as NFTs, from credits certified by market standard Verra, for an average price of $1,770. The aim? To raise funds to plant billions of trees that will “significantly change the Earth’s landscape” and store carbon that can be sold as carbon credits.

    Central to SPE’s investment case is a claim to have government contracts to plant more than a billion trees in Pakistan, Sri Lanka and the Maldives. An investigation by Climate Home, drawing on interviews with government officials and experts in those countries, suggests this claim is vastly inflated. While SPE’s founder has been striving to make his vision a reality, it is far from a done deal.

    SPE was established in April 2021 by 41-year-old Imran Ali, a project manager from the northern British city of Bradford, who previously worked in the waste and renewable energy sectors.

    The company is part of a recent boom in cryptocurrency initiatives to overhaul carbon trading. These involve taking carbon credits out of the existing market and putting them on a blockchain where they can be bought with cryptocurrency, allowing traders to speculate on the price of a tonne of carbon. Growing demand for offsets is expected to push up prices.

    “We are trying to create a clean market for carbon credits… make it easy for people to obtain,” Ali told Climate Home in a phone interview from Pakistan-controlled Kashmir, where he said he was visiting tree nurseries.

    Ali described himself as “an environmentalist” and a father concerned about his daughter’s future – “not a crypto person”. The buzz around cryptocurrencies provided him with a vehicle to fund carbon saving projects and raise awareness about the climate crisis, he explained. “So far it’s working.”

    SPE says it has attracted more than 80,000 investors. While Climate Home could not verify the figure, supporters of the venture exchange hundreds of messages every day on its Telegram channel. Ali said SPE was in talks with fossil fuel and mining companies interested in using its carbon credits to offset their emissions.

    What is a cryptocurrency? 

    Cryptocurrencies are an alternative way to make payments. The technology behind it allows virtual money to be sent directly to others without using a centralised system, bypassing governments and financial watchdogs.

    What is blockchain? 

    Each transaction of crypto assets is registered and verified on a blockchain, a computer-based system that uses digital keys to prove to the network who owns what. This makes blockchain networks transparent and difficult to cheat.

    Doesn’t blockchain use a huge amount of energy ? 

    Not necessarily. Blockchains used to support cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin are extremely energy-intensive. That’s because “mining” Bitcoin requires each node on the system to solve complex cryptographic puzzle to prevent hacking.

    It’s this security design that is energy-intensive. New generations of blockchain use a different security test that uses just 0.1% of the energy, explained Johannes Sedlmeir, who researches electricity use in blockchain technology at German research centre FIM. Blockchain applications for global carbon accounting are being explored.

    The international community of investors backing SPE coordinate on Telegram to generate hype around the company, sharing memes and motivational chats with newcomers.

    “I HAVE NEVER BEEN SO PUMPED IN MY LIFE,” Rob, known to some investors as SPE’s co-founder, wrote in June about the company’s prospects.

    Every day, a “Save Planet Earth helper” account shares a “to-do list” for investors to keep SPE trending on crypto currency trading platforms and social media. Tasks include visiting SPE’s web pages to boost its search ranking on Google and upvoting comments on Reddit.

    Any critical messages are quickly challenged, with administrators urging contributors to keep a “positive vibe”.

    One particularly active investor who goes by the pseudonym of “Cryptist” is referred to as “SPE’s hype hero” for sharing ecstatic voice messages.

    Ali, who is regularly called “a legend”, uses these channels to provide updates to his backers.

    “Super stoked for Imran’s update from Pakistan. So much work happening out there […] Project is still ploughing ahead from a fundamentals standpoint, the potential here is mind blowing,” Neil Brady, of Canada, told the group earlier this month.

    A message shared by Rob on SPE’s official Telegram channel in June 2021

    “SPE is a diamond in the rough,” Adam, a firefighter from Southampton, UK, told Climate Home, comparing it favourably to the rest of the “greed-based” crypto world. By investing in SPE, Adam said he was “doing [his] bit” to solve the climate crisis. He hoped to use SPE’s future carbon credits to offset his family’s carbon footprint.

    “I talk about the environment more than I have ever done with my friends, with my children,” he said.

    Climate Home spoke to half a dozen SPE investors. Nearly all of them had previously invested in cryptocurrency. None knew much about the carbon market.

    They trusted Ali to generate carbon credits that would increase in value and make them money. For most, saving the planet was secondary.

    One of the few women active in SPE’s investor community, Hannah Lynn, of the UK, said she started buying cryptocurrencies to make some extra cash but invested in SPE to support climate action. “I think SPE is a really great investment because carbon credits are going to get mandatory,” she told Climate Home.

    In marketing material for investors, Save Planet Earth cites analysis by the OECD which suggests that a carbon price of $147 a tonne is needed by 2030 to cut global emissions to net zero by 2050. “This is an ever-growing market that will be worth trillions of dollars over the next decade,” it wrote.

    In practice, carbon pricing is not the only tool of climate policy. While analysts expect the voluntary carbon market to grow, Bloomberg New Energy Finance forecasts a much lower price of $11/t in 2030 – unless the quality criteria are tightly restricted.

    SPE’s ambition doesn’t stop at carbon credits. The company says it aims to be “self-sufficient” and is working on developing its own renewable-powered blockchain, an app to monitor its afforestation projects and a carbon credit exchange where assets can only be purchased with SPE’s own cryptocurrency.

    Investors that spoke to Climate Home praised the company’s transparency, leadership and qualifications.

    On Telegram, SPE boasted about the team’s “several PhDs, MBAs and carbon fund managers” which it said made it “the most qualified climate science team in crypto with decades of experience in the environmental sector”.

    But those named as “the core team” on SPE’s website act as advisors or contractors to the company and aren’t involved in its day to day running.

    Product manager Sajid Salih, of Sri Lanka, told Climate Home earlier this month he hadn’t been in touch with the core “in a while” and was unable to provide information about the structure of the company.

    Ali told Climate Home over the phone SPE was run by volunteers, including developers, “who are passionate about the environment”. In a later email signed by Ali and partly attributed to an unnamed volunteer, SPE insisted it had “a proper team comprising of carbon, technology, forestry, renewable energy, and crypto experts”, but that the company’s structure was “confidential”.

    “SPE is doing really well and what it has achieved in a short time is immense, while also launching additional environmental projects. Something must be going right if that’s the case,” it said in an email.

    Nine months after its launch, SPE said it had contracts to plant 1.1bn trees: one billion trees in Pakistan – a tenth of the country’s national target – 100 million trees in Sri Lanka and one million in the Maldives. Ali wrote on SPE’s official Telegram channel this month that the Pakistani government had “already given us the green light to carry on with our 1 billion tree planting initiative”. These boasts were, at best, premature.

    Pakistan’s climate minister Malik Amin Aslam told Climate Home in an email he had never heard of SPE and was “quite surprised” by its claim. Hassan Ali Sukhera, national project director for the country’s flagship “ten billion tree tsunami”, said he had met with SPE but no agreement had been signed.

    In a follow-up email, Ali changed his story. He said officials at the tree tsunami initiative and local authorities in Kashmir had “no objections” to the project and there was “no need for any agreement with the climate change ministry”. He said SPE did not have permission to generate carbon credits on public land in Pakistan but agreements had been reached with private landowners, which he would not disclose.

    In fact, while SPE says it has planted 25,000-27,000 trees to date, none have been used to generate carbon credits. “We just do it to build partnerships and trust,” Ali said.

    In the Maldives, SPE signed an MoU with the Maldives Integrated Tourism Development Corporation (MITDC), a government-owned enterprise focused on growing the tourism industry. This was done without the involvement or knowledge of the environment ministry. The deal didn’t include any provisions for generating carbon credits.

    Mohamed Nasheed, Maldives’ former president and a long standing climate advocate, told Climate Home that planting one million trees in the Maldives was a “huge” target. The small island state is 99% ocean. Land for tree-planting is scarce.

    “The Maldives want to plant trees and create opportunities to do so. But we would like credible people to come and do credible things,” Nasheed told Climate Home.

    In Sri Lanka, the director of the Central Environmental Authority Kosala Welikannage wrote a letter in May, seen by Climate Home, introducing SPE to six tea plantations. But Welikannage told Climate Home that while the agency had supported SPE in planting some trees on Earth Day, it was no longer in contact with the initiative.

    Ali said he had “enough leads” in Sri Lanka to meet the 100m tree target by planting fruit trees such as jackfruit, mangos, durians and avocados, on private tea plantations, which would allow SPE to issue carbon credits. The company said it was “actively seeking planting locations”.

    The choice of fruit trees raised an eyebrow for Meredith Martins, assistant professor at the North Carolina State University, who has studied agroforestry systems in Sri Lanka. They are not the best option for storing carbon and while they can be good for communities, she said they needed to be “intensively managed”.

    Ali said local people were being asked to monitor planting sites and that its community management plan was “classified” and that information will be made public “when necessary”.

    For Adriana Vidal, senior forest policy officer with IUCN and chair of Global Partnership on Forest and Landscape Restoration, the information provided by SPE “is not enough to ensure the environmental integrity of these projects”.

    “If you want to sell carbon credits you have to make sure that they are grounded in reality,” Vidal said. That requires clear agreements with stakeholders, land owners and authorities. “It’s not really serious if you don’t have this information in place.”

    When Climate Home put it to Ali that he was misleading investors, he replied that SPE was “in its early stages” and that the pandemic had made the work “really difficult”. It was “a huge undertaking” but he insisted SPE “will achieve everything that we said we want to achieve” and “is being regarded as a serious environmental outfit” by those it has struck agreements with.

    SPE’s business model presented to investors in marketing material (Source: Save Planet Earth)

    SPE is one of a flurry of crypto ventures to have seized on surging demand for carbon offsets. Toucan, a nonprofit crypto initiative based in Switzerland, says its technology has allowed more than 18 million tonnes of carbon offsets to be tied to digital cryptocurrency tokens.

    Supporters say this will make the carbon market more transparent, verifiable and easier to access for individuals and companies seeking to offset their emissions. Trading carbon credits the traditional way requires an account with a dedicated registry, putting it out of the reach of small buyers.

    Carbon market experts are open to the idea in principle, sceptical in practice. Many are growing concerned about a proliferation of poor quality digital credits on the market.

    “The tokenisation of carbon credits should not come at the expense of skimping on environmental integrity,” said Ingo Puhl, co-founder of carbon offset provider South Pole.

    A key concern is that by putting credits on a blockchain, it removes it from the control of the carbon standard that issued it. This “opens the door for possible misuse,” Puhl said.

    Standard Verra has distanced itself from the trend of tokenising its credits, warning that once they are traded on a blockchain, it can no longer vouch for their environmental benefits.

    Comment: Why I refuse to collude with polluters in the carbon offsetting lie

    The use of carbon credits to offset emissions from burning fossil fuels is controversial, regardless of how transactions are carried out. There is a long history of forest carbon projects not delivering the claimed climate benefits – and a certification process to try and address these flaws.

    Trading carbon credits on a blockchain does not make them any better for the climate, argued Gilles Dufrasne, policy officer at Carbon Market Watch. “It’s just the same thing re-packaged” or worse a “greenwashing” machine to give “a crypto shine to poor quality credits”.

    Owen Hewlett, chief technical officer at Gold Standard and co-founder of the Climate Ledger Initiative, a platform to bring together the climate and technology communities, was more optimistic about the technology’s potential.

    Carbon market incumbents have plenty of ideas on how to use blockchain to advance climate action and democratise finance, Hewlett said, but crypto entrepreneurs were not listening to the old hands.

    “It seems more about catching the cryptocurrency bubble than using that technology to do good. And that would be a missed opportunity.”

    Investigative journalism takes time and expertise. Climate Home’s mission is to produce original journalism that informs and inspires action to tackle the global climate crisis. With your support, we can dig deeper. Please consider a contribution to our work.

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    Oil desire ain’t peaked yet


    Signal up to get our weekly newsletter straight to your inbox, furthermore breaking information, investigations and excess bulletins from vital situations

    Local climate action is crucial no matter of the oil selling price, and the market’s volatility is an evergreen argument for investing in secure thoroughly clean strength.

    But selling prices influence the calculus of decisions produced on each individual scale, from govt taxes to residence spending.

    When oil rates crashed in 2014-16, the IMF explained to policymakers it was the excellent time to lower fossil gasoline subsidies. Oil majors scaled back again highly-priced exploration options. The flipside was decrease cost cost savings from investing in a petrol car or truck for electrical.

    Now crude is trading for close to $90 a barrel and gas is spiking, frontier oil developments are again in play. The International Electricity Company has been distinct that no new oil is suitable with a 1.5C limit on international warming – but weather policy is even now pushed by measures to lower desire and they are not biting but. Oil intake is forecast to return to pre-pandemic degrees this yr.

    London-centered thinktank Climate Tracker has recognized some of the greatest developers gambling on local climate failure. Key oil jobs in Kuwait, Nigeria, Brazil and Mexico will not pay off in a Paris-compliant foreseeable future. When there might be an equity argument for developing international locations getting a licence to drill longer than produced countries, it is a dangerous economic approach.

    Germany is defending gasoline as a transition gas in the EU environmentally friendly finance rules. Supplied the EU is commonly seen as a local weather chief, this would established a worryingly weak benchmark for the relaxation of the planet.

    And in negotiations to reform the obscure and problematic Electricity Charter Treaty, the Uk and Switzerland are accused by campaigners of featuring a haven to fossil gasoline interests. (Reward information: subscribers to our Further publication got an exceptional interview with the new head of the ECT on the possible landing floor for modernisation talks.)

    This week’s tales

    Then there is a diverse sort of oil market posing a danger to forests: palm oil. Indonesia abruptly finished a deal with Norway final calendar year, complaining of delayed payment for the final results of forest defense efforts.

    A analyze revealed this week proposed Indonesia experienced prevented much more carbon emissions than Norway gave it credit rating for. The methodology for calculating prevented emissions is contentious – and at the very least 1 critic on Twitter disputed the summary.

    But it raises a more essential place about the dynamics of these types of partnerships: the funding obtainable to secure trees is fewer than can be built by cultivating palm oil on that land. Till that improvements, demand from customers for palm oil to use in globally traded products like cosmetics and meals will proceed to generate deforestation.



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    Good News in History, January 28


    64 years ago today, the son of a Danish carpenter and successful toymaker named Godtfred Christiansen, walked into a patent office and filed for a design of interlocking plastic bricks that would go on to become the world’s most successful toy company. Meaning “play well,” LEGO, as we know it today, was born when Godtfred began to realize the capability which plastic had for replacing wood in children’s toys. It took five years to find the right material for the brick which that patent still produces today. It’s made of ABS (acrylonitrile butadiene styrene) polymer, and 600 billion have been made to date. READ more and WATCH the genius behind the world’s most famous brick… (1958)

    Brand staples like LEGO themed sets and minifigures wouldn’t arrive until at least a decade later. Despite this the simple blocks continued to grow in popularity. Lego bricks from 1958 still interlock with those made in the current time, and Lego sets for young children are compatible with those made for teenagers. Six bricks of 2 × 4 studs can be combined in 915,103,765 ways. Another of LEGO’s great miracles is their precision. With manufacturing machines capable of honing a brick’s dimensions to within 10 micrometers, the bricks fit together firmly and resist dismantling under force, but yet they can be easily pulled apart, even by a child.

    Society almost lost LEGO during the 1990s, when a string of unpopular product launches landed the company in dire financial conditions. In those days it was actually adults who looked to build for that Zen-feeling one gets when deeply immersed in constructing a structure from freeform LEGO pieces, and others who began to use simply electrical currents to create sets and machines that actually moved, that saved the company. As of 2021, they were the largest toy company on earth.

     

    MORE Good News on this Date:

    • The Warsaw Confederation sanctioned religious freedom in Poland (1573)
    • Jane Austen’s Pride and Prejudice was first published — with its first print run selling out at about 1,500 copies (1813)
    • The world’s largest snowflakes fell in Fort Keogh, Montana, which were reported to be 15 inches / 38 cm wide (1887)
    • A Tomb of the Unknown Soldier was added beneath the Arc de Triomphe in Paris to honor the unknown dead of World War I (1921)
    • Iceland became the first country to legalize abortion (1935)
    • Italian police rescued a U.S. General after 42 days as hostage of the Red Brigade (1982)

    Happy 86th Birthday to Alan Alda, best known for his comedic role as Capt. Hawkeye Pierce in the TV series M*A*S*H, for which he was nominated for 21 Emmy Awards during the run from 1972-83, and won five. He also wrote and directed many episodes, including the ​2-hour series finale—which became the single most-watched episode of any series in American TV history.

    MASH-season-2-hawkeye-hotlipsHe made his film directorial debut in The Four Seasons, which he co-wrote, starring alongside Carol Burnett, and made his marriage debut in 1957 co-starring with his college sweetheart Arlene—to whom he is still wedded.

    Beyond Arlene, and doing extensive charity work (especially for St. Jude’s), his major passion is for science. He hosted and did interviews for the PBS show Scientific American Frontiers, and now Alda uses his expertise in acting and communication to help scientists communicate more effectively when sharing their findings to the public. 15,000 people were trained since he founded the Alan Alda Center for Communicating Science at Stony Brook University in 2010.

    He was diagnosed in 2015 with Parkinson’s disease and developed tremors, but that didn’t keep him from using his distinctive voice. In 2020 he released an original podcast called Soldiers of Science: The Vietnam War, Anthony Fauci & the Doctors who Revolutionized American Medicine. He’s also began hosting two podcasts: Clear + Vivid with Alan Alda, as well as Science Clear + Vivid. (1936)

    Over the last decade, Alda has published two memoirs, Never Have Your Dog Stuffed: and Other Things I’ve Learned, and Things I Overheard While Talking to Myself. (2015 photo, above: Moody College of Communication Austin 2015, CC license)

    WATCH him talk about his SAG Lifetime Achievement award…

    On this day 37 years ago, a group of American performers recorded the charity song, We Are the World, to raise money for famine relief in Africa. Written by Michael Jackson and Lionel Richie, the song became the fastest-selling American pop single in history, selling over 20 million copies and raising over $63 million immediately for humanitarian aid.

    More than 45 of America’s biggest names in music “checked their egos at the door’ to make the USA for Africa recording, including Michael Jackson, Bob Dylan, Paul Simon, Stevie Wonder, Ray Charles, Billy Joel, Tina Turner, Diana Ross, Bruce Springsteen, Dionne Warwick, Willie Nelson, Harry Belafonte, Kenny Loggins, Steve Perry, and more. With its dazzling cast, the song eventually became the biggest selling single in both pop music history.

    In the 37 years since then, the recording produced by Quincy Jones has raised over one hundred million dollars for African relief. Check out the USAforAfrica.org website for more photos and info. GET THE CHILLS WATCHING the historic video below… (1985)

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    make every single working day a neglected tropical conditions day


    The Earth Well being Corporation (WHO) kicked off this year’s commemoration of Globe Neglected Tropical Health conditions (NTD) Working day below the topic ‘Achieving overall health fairness to close the neglect of poverty-associated disorders’ with a simply call to aim extra on strengthening interventions in get to boost equitable well being companies for all.

    In his concluding remarks during a virtual celebration to mark this year’s Earth NTD Working day, Dr Ren Minghui WHO’s Assistant Director-Basic who leads the Division of Universal Overall health Coverage/Communicable and Non-Communicable Diseases mentioned celebrating progress reminds us of further operate necessary to accomplish the 2030 Sustainable Advancement Goals to close the epidemics of NTDs.

    He explained WHO will continue on to work with nations endemic for NTDs and with all partners to aid those who are struggling from these preventable illnesses and make certain that no a single is still left powering.

    “So allow us not limit ourselves to a one particular-day commemoration, but alternatively make each and every working day an NTD day by working collectively and encouraging the global well being neighborhood to combat these disorders of poverty”, reported Dr Minghui.

    Earth NTD Day – a mostly associates-initiated commemorative day – is celebrated on 30 January. This yr is WHO’s very first participation adhering to past year’s recognition by the World Well being Assembly. This calendar year, it coincides with Earth Leprosy Day which has usually been commemorated on the past Sunday of January.

    The inaugural celebration by partners was in 2020. In 2021, and to coincide with the start on 28 January of the NTD highway map for 2021-2030, quite a few situations had been held around the world including the illumination of quite a few iconic properties to shine a light on the suffering these ailments induce.  

    Today’s digital celebration brought together messages from a host of personalities, such as WHO’s Director-Standard, Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus who thanked absolutely everyone for continuing their challenging perform in offering wellbeing providers, irrespective of the pandemic.

    The function also listened to from the freshly developed Group of Friends on Defeating NTDs about how diplomats who symbolize their countries at the United Nations in New York system to work to raise the profile of NTDs.

    Potent messages also came from Professor Alice Cruz, UN Special Rapporteur on the elimination of discrimination from folks affected by leprosy and their household associates who known as for a stop to all forms of discrimination from individuals struggling from NTDs, specifically leprosy.

    “We have to have motion. Action that promotes content equality by means of redistributive policies that can assure a minimum amount conventional of living to persons affected by NTDs, alongside equitable accessibility to community items and providers. Organizations and networks of folks affected are a vital resource to fortify action and its access” explained Professor Cruz. She also praised the vivid international NTD local community for their operate.

    “So, enable us be guided by this community and be part of attempts to fight endemic social injustice and make actual a persons-centered paradigm that puts the effectively-becoming of persons, communities and populations first” she said.

    In his message, Senator Stan Kutcher from Canada spoke of the need to invest in NTDs to improve the life of the poorest people and aid the road map targets for 2030. He also spoke of his country’s guidance to address problems associated to gender equality and the advertising and welfare of women and women.

    Professor Keizo Takemi, WHO’s Goodwill Ambassador for Common Health Coverage centered on NTD companies as an ‘integrated offer of care’ and how they handle problems outside of health, which includes stigma and social exclusion.

    “It is time to just take motion and more combine NTD interventions into main wellness care. In carrying out so, we can safe their sustainability when contributing to more robust, more resilient and more far-reaching health systems” said Professor Takemi.

    Good information about guinea-worm ailment arrived by way of an announcement from Ms Paige Alexander, Chief Govt Officer of The Carter Center. She declared that only 14 conditions human scenarios of dracunculiasis medinensis happened in 2021 – the most affordable due to the fact the world-wide eradication campaign started in the mid-1980s. Animal infections have also lowered, pointing to encouraging symptoms that the eradication programme is progressing nicely.

    The 1-hour programme also showcased stories about people who live with debilitating conditions triggered by NTDs and testimonies from individuals. These showed how well being programs are performing hard to inform and teach folks about NTDs, resulting in enhanced willingness to search for professional medical therapy in hospitals and treatment centres.

    Amusement was also component of the agenda, with good musical performances from many artists.



    Resource url

    Flexibility is needed in China’s national carbon market


    To the Editor — China launched its national carbon market on 16 July 2021. The market size with respect to CO2 equivalent emissions, generated from 2,162 power corporations covered in the first batch of trading, is estimated to exceed 4 billion tons per year. It has surpassed the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) to become the biggest carbon trading market in the world1. Unlike EU ETS, which caps absolute emissions, China’s carbon market adopts an intensity-based cap that limits carbon emissions per unit of output. Therefore, the initial allocation of allowances is based on a plant’s output and its sector-specific benchmark2. Although the current market design will not cap the output directly, more flexibility is needed to accommodate the huge regional disparities in China for the steady running of a giant but united carbon market. Furthermore, as compared with project-based mechanisms, the current allowance-based trading mechanism lacks the flexibility to incentivize the development of renewable energy.



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    The oil businesses gambling on weather failure


    The Kuwait Petroleum Company, Shell and ExxonMobil are among the all those pursuing large value oil assignments that will not fork out off in a 1.8C globe

    Fossil fuel corporations are gambling on world warming going unchecked and the cost of oil remaining substantial, a Carbon Tracker evaluation has claimed.

    The analysis claims that, if the plans of the Paris Agreement are fulfilled then lots of oil exploration projects will not deliver the returns that their investors are expecting.

    It names 5 tasks which are particularly dependent on local weather failure – whilst report author and former BP geologist Mike Coffin advised Climate Dwelling News they were being just 5 of thousands.

    They are the expansion of the Decrease Fars significant oil in Kuwait, Shell and ExxonMobil’s Bosi subject in Nigeria, Petrobras’s Tupi and ExxonMobil and Equinor’s Bacalhau tasks in Brazil and the Ichalkil Comprehensive job in Mexico.

    Four of the five are offshore as these assignments tend to be larger sized and thus a lot more high priced and time-consuming to create. They all require an oil selling price of earlier mentioned $50 a barrel to break even.

    Oil and gas analyst Axel Dalman is the report’s direct author. He said: “Companies may well see significant costs as a massive neon signal pointing in the direction of financial investment in extra offer. Nevertheless, this could develop into a nightmare situation if they go ahead with jobs which provide oil about the time that desire starts off to decrease. Shareholders could face catastrophic amounts of value destruction as costs fall.”

    The report says that the latest large oil rate of all-around $90 a barrel will not previous as the world’s transition to clean power, specifically for autos, lowers demand for oil.

    In a 1.8C warming situation, oil need will peak and then tumble quickly. To maximise their gains, Carbon Tracker stated fossil gas firms should really only satisfy the rising demand from customers with shale jobs, which produce quicker.

    To restrict world warming to the strongest goal in the Paris Arrangement of 1.5C, the Global Vitality Agency has stated that there is no home for any new oil and fuel creation (which includes shale).

    Norway underpaid Indonesia for forest defense success, research argues

    Even if the globe decreases oil demand and the jobs disappoint buyers, Coffin advised Local climate Home Information that many will go on in any case because, with so a great deal money currently put in, the remaining fees will be included by profits.

    Of the 5 assignments, the most highly-priced is point out-owned Kuwait Petroleum Corporation’s Decrease Fars venture, at $7.5 billion. It is portion of the enormous onshore Ratqa subject in the north of Kuwait.

    To make 10% returns on their investments, the default charge of business analyst Rystad, the undertaking demands the value of oil to be in the significant $50s. That means a huge desire for oil, incompatible with the globe assembly its climate targets.

    Chatham Residence Gulf analyst Glada Lahn explained to Climate Property Information: “Projects like this gamble on a desperate globe in which oil could trade for higher costs as hope of reining in local weather alter is lost. No sensible trader need to be banking on a long term for large oil.”

    This project is especially “horrendous” from an environmental as nicely as economic point of view, she stated, mainly because it demands superior concentrations of vitality and drinking water to get the oil out of the floor and to change it to a liquid so that it can be transported.

    Germany backs fuel as “transition” gas in EU environmentally friendly finance guidelines

    Kuwait is a member of the oil-developing countries’ club OPEC, which does not be expecting oil need to peak right until the late 2030s. “This is why advancement in oil output is heading on,” stated Aisha Al-Sarihi, exploration fellow at the Nationwide College of Singapore who has labored on local climate policy in many Gulf countries.

    The emirate has a target of creating 4m barrels of crude oil a day by 2040, up from 2.4m in 2020.

    Kuwait has what promises to be the world’s to start with sovereign prosperity fund, which invests oil prosperity in a assortment of international sectors to empower “future generations to deal with the uncertainties ahead with larger confidence”.

    “Now it urgently requires to devote in changeover domestically,” explained Lahn. “That $7.5bn could much much more beneficially be put in on performance and climate resilience.”

    Kuwait has endured significantly from heatwaves, water shortages, dust storms, sand storms and climbing sea concentrations. According to its government’s most recent climate approach, these are all built even worse by weather adjust.

    Al-Sarihi stated Kuwait ought to use its oil revenues to spend in economic diversification, renewables and hydrogen. If the returns on the Lower Fars challenge are small, Kuwaiti folks will go through as the govt will have much less oil profits to commit, she stated.

    Oil study vehicles in Kuwait (Photograph: Graham Newell/Flickr)

    But, in accordance to Chukwumerije Okereke, a Nigerian professor in environment and improvement at Studying College, fossil gasoline corporations pulling out of these initiatives will also cause complications.

    While Nigeria is vulnerable to local weather change, it also depends on oil economically. Oil and fuel accounts for up to 86% of Nigeria’s foreign exchange revenues. Nigeria’s poverty price is 40%, four times greater than the global normal.

    Shell and ExxonMobil have reported they will create the Bosi offshore oil discipline. Carbon Tracker finds the venture requirements $6.7bn in capital expenditure, won’t get started pumping oil right up until 2029 and desires an oil price in the significant $50s for each barrel.

    Shell has promised to lessen its oil production 1-2% a year and focus on “value above volumes”, generating it much more cautious about using on high-priced or contentious jobs. If it pulls out, Nigerian taxpayers and employees could undergo. 

    Okereke claimed: “Oil exploration is a major source of weather air pollution in Nigeria but also, at the very least for now, the lifeline of Nigeria’s financial state. The condition in Nigeria now is grave. Nigeria is involving the satan and the deep blue sea with regards to stranded belongings in individual and weather change in standard.”

    As perfectly as the economics of the world-wide power changeover noted on by Carbon Tracker, Okereje claimed that nearby aspects like insecurity and environmental degradation have been earning oil organizations “rethink their motivation to oil drilling in Nigeria”.

    “It is sad that the very poor will be the most impacted by the loss of work affiliated with unplanned energy transition in Nigeria,” he said.

    Joe Lo



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    Good News On This Day in History


    Happy 80th birthday to the 2018 Nobel Laureate, Tasuku Honjo, who was awarded the prize alongside James Allison for their work on immune checkpoint therapy, a revolutionary method of treating cancer without chemotherapy drugs. Honjo’s contribution was the discovery in 1992 of a protein known as “programed cell death protein-1” or PD1 which acted as a brake on the human immune system, stopping innate defenses from targeting cancer cells. Combined with Allison’s discovery of a similar braking protein, the pair found a way to utilize a patient’s own immune system to defeat cancer, something thought impossible not so long ago. READ more about his discovery… (1942)

    – PHOTO CREDIT: Tasuku Honjo at a Nobel Laureate press conference. Bengt Nyman, CC 4.0.

    “The seminal discoveries by the two laureates constitutes a paradigmatic shift and a landmark in the fight against cancer,” said Klas Kärre, an immunologist and member of the Nobel Committee. “It represents a completely new principle, because unlike previous strategies, it is not based on targeting the cancer cells, but rather the brakes — the checkpoints — of the host immune system.”

    Immune checkpoint therapy blocking the PD1 protein has been shown to be effective at fighting off, and even eradicating, lymphomas, melanoma, lung cancer, and renal cancers. When paired with the blocking of CD41, discovered by Allison, it is even more effective. It even beat former-President Jimmy Carter’s cancer into remission, and has treated thousands of patients successfully.

    MORE Good News on This Day:

    • The University of Georgia was founded as the first state-chartered public university in the US—and it opened for students six years later (1785)
    • The Russian Antarctic Expedition led by Fabian Gottlieb von Bellingshausen and Mikhail Lazarev discover the continent of Antarctica (1820)
    • Lewis Carroll, author of Alice’s Adventures in Wonderland, was born in England (1832)
    • 60 nations signed the Outer Space Treaty to ban nuclear weapons there (1967)
    • Paris Peace Accords officially ended the Vietnam War (1973)
    • Japan successfully linked 2 islands with the world’s longest subaqueous tunnel measuring 33.5 miles / 53.9 km (1983)
    • The National Recording Registry at the Library of Congress enshrines their first selections (2003)
    • Kathleen Wynne was named by the Liberal Party of Ontario to become Canada’s first openly gay Premier (2013)

    On this date in 2010, Steve Jobs announced Apple would soon unveil the iPad tablet, fulfilling his publicly stated goal from a quarter century earlier “to put an incredibly great computer in a book that you can carry around with you and learn how to use in 20 minutes … with a radio link in it so you don’t have to hook up to anything and you’re in communication with all of these larger databases and computers.”

    Also, 266 years ago today, the musical genius child prodigy Wolfgang Amadeus Mozart was born in Salzburg, Austria. By the age of five he was already prolific on the piano and violin and performing his original compositions for European royalty.

    An inspiration for Beethoven, who was 15 years younger, Mozart composed over 600 works, many acknowledged as pinnacles of symphonic, chamber, operatic, and choral music, before his death at age 35. The thin, small man, “except for his large intense eyes, gave no outward signs of genius.” Some of his most renowned works were operas, such as The Marriage of Figaro, Don Giovanni, and Così Fan Tutte. You are probably familiar with Mozart melodies, even without realizing it. From the 1984 film called Amadeus, which won 8 Academy Awards, a short clip on YouTube shows an amused Mozart playing a piece composed by an inferior rival musician in the court. (1756)

    And, 78 years ago today, the Siege of Leningrad in Russia was ended after 872 days; the stranglehold by the German blockade during World War II was broken allowing food and fuel to reach the city now called St. Petersburg. After the last road to the city was severed in 1941, the largest loss of life ever known in a modern city followed, with water, energy and food shortages resulting in the deaths of up to 1.5 million soldiers and civilians—and the evacuation of 1.4 million women and children. (1944)

    96 years ago, Erwin Schrödinger published his theory of wave mechanics, a significant landmark in the development of quantum theory that won him the Nobel Prize.

    Raised in Austria, but Irish after emigration, the physicist’s theory is known as the Schrödinger equation, and provided a way to calculate the wave function of a system and how it changes dynamically in time—the quantum counterpart of Newton’s second law in classical mechanics. (See the equation on his tombstone.)

    Schrödinger’s gravestone: Victor Blacus, CC license

    He was the author of many works on various aspects of physics and made several attempts to construct a unified field theory. He is also known for his Schrödinger’s cat thought experiment, whereby two possible outcomes occur simultaneously—co-existing as a combination of multiple states corresponding to different choices.

    In his book What Is Life? Schrödinger addressed the problems of genetics, looking at the phenomenon of life from the point of view of physics. He paid great attention to the philosophical aspects of science, though the lens of ancient philosophy and oriental concepts, ethics, and religion. He called himself an atheist. However, he had strong interests in Eastern religions and pantheism, and he believed his scientific work was a philosophical approach to the godhead, but in an intellectual sense. (1926)

    Also, 77 years ago today, the Auschwitz-Birkenau Nazi concentration and death camps were liberated by the Soviet Red Army in Poland. In commemoration, today is honored as International Holocaust Memorial Day adopted by the United Nations, UK, Germany, Poland, and Denmark.

    Courtesy of Auschwitz.org memorial

    More than 200 Auschwitz survivors from all over the world will return to the location, which is now a memorial and museum. A delegation of 120 survivors from the US, Canada, Israel, Australia, and several European countries took part in the commemoration of the 75th Anniversary of the camp’s Liberation thanks to the support of the Auschwitz-Birkenau Memorial Foundation from New York City. (1945)

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    Good News on This Day in History


    On this day 98 years ago, the first ever gold medal in the Winter Olympics was won—by an American no less. American skater Charles Jewtraw (right) won the 500m speed skating event in 44.0s at the Chamonix Games in France, the site still traditionally featured whenever the Winter Games come around. For Jewtraw, a poor kid growing up on Lake Placid, it was “like a fairy tale,” as he had competed nationally, but gave it up to pursue a higher education. “I was so sick crossing the ocean that I kept praying the ship would sink. I wasn’t even nervous the day of the race. Why would I be? I knew I couldn’t win,” he told Sports Illustrated. LEARN More about the poor boy from Lake Placid… (1924)

    The 27 competitors from 13 nations raced in pairs for the speed skating, with the shortest time taking the gold. Jewtraw recounted in 1983 about competing against a Canadian skater Charles Gorman.

    “I was always great on starts, but Gorman got the jump on me. He was going like a cyclone. I was in the outside lane, and I knew we had to change lanes somewhere down the line. I hadn’t watched any heats before ours, so I couldn’t figure out how it would happen. But somehow it did, and after we changed I was ahead. I have no idea how it happened. We were screaming along, and then I got a second wind. I didn’t dare look behind to see where Gorman was. I beat him by a second and a half. He told me he was completely exhausted. I had emptied him out.”

    At 44 seconds dead, he would not be overtaken by any of the Scandinavian favorites. “I stood in the middle of the rink, and they played The Star-Spangled Banner. The whole American team rushed out on the ice. They hugged me like I was a beautiful girl. Oh my God… My team-mates threw me in the air. The loudspeakers were booming out in French, ‘Charlie Jewtraw of the U.S. of A. wins the first race in the first Winter Games!’ How many people have a moment like that?”

    – PHOTO CREDIT: Charles Gorman (left) and Charles Jewtraw (right) and speed skating at Chamonix. IOC.

    MORE Good News on this Date:

    • Australia Day is celebrated as a public holiday commemorating the First Fleet landing (1788)
    • US Congress established the Library of Congress (1802)
    • Famed actor, philanthropist, and husband of 50 years, Paul Newman was born in a suburb of Cleveland, Ohio (1925)
    • The Apollo Theater, renown for launching some of the biggest names in music, including Michael Jackson, James Brown, Aretha Franklin, Stevie Wonder and Ella Fitzgerald, opened its doors on 125th Street in Harlem—which are still open today (1934)
    • Israel and Egypt, led by US President Jimmy Carter, ended an ongoing state of war that dated back to 1948, restored full diplomatic relations and reopened embassies (1980)
    • Phantom of the Opera opened, to become the longest-run Broadway show (1988)
    • Václav Havel was elected President of the Czech Republic (1993)
    • President Hamid Karzai signed the new constitution of Afghanistan (2004)

    And on this day in 1916, Olympic athlete and war hero Louis Zamperini was born. An unruly boy who was bullied for not speaking English, the Italian immigrants’ son found purpose in running track. After setting a world record in high school for running a mile in 4:21.2 minutes, he competed in the Berlin Olympics at age 19. As a bombardier in World War II, his plane crashed and he survived for 47 days in shark infested waters with little food or water in an inflatable life raft, only to be captured and severely tortured by the Japanese on the island where he finally landed. Louis Zamperini-2015

    He died at the age of 97, four years after the completion of a 2010 book about his life, Unbroken: A World War II Story of Survival, Resilience, and Redemption by Laura Hillenbrand. The book was made into a film, directed by Angelina Jolie. The remarkable “good news” for Zamperini arrived in his post-war life. He suffered from PTSD and constant nightmares until he became a devout Christian after hearing a young Billy Graham speak about the practice of forgiveness. He told everyone that the moment he forgave his captors, the daily nightmares ended and never returned. Watch a 2014 interview with Zamperini from CBS Sunday Morning…

     

    72 years ago today, the Constitution of India came into effect to solidify a democratic government, completing the country’s transition towards becoming an independent republic. January 26th was chosen as Republic Day, to be honored annually because—also on this date in 1929—the Declaration of Indian Independence (Purna Swaraj) was proclaimed by the Indian National Congress. (1950)

    Happy Birthday to comedian and television host Ellen DeGeneres who turns 63 today.

    ELLEN DEGENERES
    Photo by Disney / ABC Television Group, CC license

    DeGeneres starred in the popular sitcom Ellen from 1994 to 1998 and has hosted her syndicated TV talk show, The Ellen DeGeneres Show, since 2003. Born in Louisiana and doing stand-up comedy in her early 20s, she went on to star in the popular sitcom Ellen from ’94–’98. Her Emmy Award-winning talk show, The Ellen DeGeneres Show, debuted in 2003. Everyone loved when she hosted the Oscars and ordered pizza for the crowd (the tip was phenomenal), and then they took the selfie that broke Twitter. Her kindness is, of course, legendary. Known for her generosity and charity work, particularly in animal rights, Ellen is also the author of several humor books and, most recently, she produced a coffee table book called Home, showcasing her interest in interior design. (1958)

    WATCH a stand-up clip about elevators, pickles, and people who are late…

    Happy 61st Birthday to ‘The Great One’, hockey superstar Wayne Gretzky, who during his 20 seasons in the National Hockey League became the all-time leading scorer in NHL history.

    Credit: (1997) by Håkan Dahlström and (2013) Mingle MediaTV –CC licenses

    The Canadian skater scored more assists than any other player, more total points, and he’s the only NHL player to tally over 200 points in a single season—a feat he accomplished four times. As of 2014, the left-handed center who played half his career for the Edmonton Oilers and famously disliked fighting on the ice, still held 60 NHL records. Despite his unimpressive stature, strength, and speed, “Gretzky’s intelligence and reading of the game were unrivaled. He could consistently anticipate where the puck was going to be and execute the right move at the right time.”

    Wayne has been married to his wife Janet Jones for almost 33 years and this New Year’s Eve he scored an ace—his first hole-in-one on a golf course near his home in Los Angeles.

    Gretzky’s jersey number (99) was retired league-wide, but you can still see his trademark 99 on several business ventures, including a winery and restaurants in Toronto and Edmonton. Gretzky has written an autobiography and, in 2016, the best-selling book 99: Stories of the Game.  (1961)

     

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    United kingdom, Switzerland accused of undermining EU inexperienced treaty reforms


    Campaigners say the British isles and Switzerland are defending fossil gasoline passions in Strength Charter Treaty modernisation talks to tempt corporations to relocate their headquarters

    The Uk and Switzerland have been accused of undermining the European Union’s press for environmentally friendly reforms of an investment decision treaty.

    Both equally nations have not supported the European Commission’s makes an attempt to close protections for investments in fossil fuels in the Electrical power Charter Treaty (ECT) and are not planning to withdraw from the treaty if the reforms are rejected.

    Campaigners accused the Uk and Switzerland of making an attempt to tempt EU-based fossil fuel companies to relocate their official headquarters so that they can carry on to sue governments above weather motion even if the EU withdraws from the ECT.

    Good friends of the Earth’s Paul de Clerck mentioned: “Law companies are advising their clientele to restructure their investments by means of nations that do not period out [the] protection of fossil gasoline investments so they can keep on to file [investor-state dispute settlement] instances.”

    Norway underpaid Indonesia for forest defense benefits, research argues

    “The Uk and Switzerland look to be betting on becoming these types of protected havens. This reveals how perverse this method is. These nations around the world even now prioritise preserving fossil fuel organizations in its place of fighting local climate transform,” he included.

    Yamina Saheb, who employed to head the ECT vitality effectiveness unit and now screens negotiations, explained: “It is most likely that the United kingdom will grow to be a host point out for buyers working with this treaty to sue EU nations around the world for the phase out of fossil fuels. It’s a comprehensive insanity for the host nation of Cop26 [climate talks]”.

    Climate Motion Network’s Cornelia Maarfield explained: “The Uk and Swiss stands on ECT reform just take weather hypocrisy to a new amount.”

    The ECT was set up in the 1990s to protect investments in energy throughout the previous Soviet Union. It has 92 associates, largely in Europe and Central Asia as very well as Japan.

    Germany backs gas as “transition” fuel in EU green finance recommendations

    Its regulations have been used by fossil gasoline companies to sue states about weather action and by renewables companies to sue governments who have cut subsidies – and the risk of legal action can affect policy.

    The most recent case in point of this is Slovenia transforming its policies to permit fracking for gas, right after a British company threatened to sue the govt.

    In 2020, talks commenced on “modernising” the treaty, such as to make it a lot more weather-friendly.

    The EU identified as for ending most protections for fossil gas investments but was opposed by other associates like Japan and Kazakhstan.

    Previous week, the tenth round of talks started. The ECT’s secretary-standard Guy Lentz instructed Local weather Residence Information: “[On the EU’s proposed reforms], the [UK and Switzerland] continue to be comparatively silent… for the moment, they are not taking part in this component of the negotiations… they do not intervene a great deal on it and they are mostly neutral.”

    In response to a parliamentarian’s question in November, the Swiss federal government stated its situation is that “the ECT does not avert its member states from pursuing an bold power plan, nor does it restrict their proper to control.”

    “The hazard of foreign investors having legal action against Switzerland is minimal, as foreign investment decision in its electricity sector is scarce,” it continued.

    Saudi strength minister touts pink hydrogen made by “emancipated youthful ladies”

    A spokesperson for the UK’s company and energy ministry refused to say regardless of whether it supported a carve-out of fossil fuels or was considering leaving the treaty.

    But the British isles opposes withdrawal and, previous December, the Office for Intercontinental Trade stated “we have not built a policy selection to search for the exclusion of fossil gasoline investments from protection by the ECT”.

    The spokesperson explained: “The modernised Treaty have to have a more powerful climate aim, like clarifying that states can control to reach emissions reductions targets, and align with the consider up of inexperienced systems this sort of as carbon seize, utilisation and storage [CCS] and lower-carbon hydrogen output.”

    These systems are controversial as some green campaigners argue that CCS is not economically viable and is utilised as a tactic by fossil gasoline corporations who want to hold off the changeover to renewables. Maarfield reported their inclusion would “expose long run governments to an even greater danger of remaining sued for fossil period-out policies”.

    E3G analyst Lisa Fischer reported: “Low-carbon hydrogen, if undefined, could incorporate ‘blue’ [which is made with methane gas] and there is a large amount of inquiries around the precise climate value of that.”

    A for targets, D for action: Joe Biden’s first 12 months on climate, graded

    The EU has tried to negotiate reform of the ECT alternatively than leaving it mainly because there is the treaty has a 20-12 months ‘sunset clause’. This means that its policies however apply for 20 many years after a state leaves.

    An EU spokesperson informed Climate Home News it was “considering other options” if reforms are unsuccessful. There are two more rounds of talks before a planned “ad hoc constitution conference” in June 2022. Lentz explained this was a “first deadline” for the big principles to be agreed.

    If the EU and its member states depart, they are probably to guarantee not to utilize the treaty’s provisions versus other EU states in the course of the 20-yr sunset – even though Lentz questioned irrespective of whether this sort of a promise would stand up in member states’ courts.

    If the EU member states did effectively end the treaty making use of in the EU, then EU-based mostly fossil fuel firms could keep their capability to sue member point out governments by transferring to current ECT customers like the British isles or Switzerland.

    In November 2021, soon after a court ruled that the ECT did not implement inside the EU, expenditure lawyer Stephanie Collins reported EU buyers “may wish to restructure their investments via a non-EU jurisdiction” this kind of as Switzerland or the Uk.

    Relocating to Switzerland or to British isles-linked jurisdictions like the Cayman Islands, British Virgin Islands, Jersey or Guernsey can have tax and secrecy positive aspects as well.

    Joe Lo



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