Australian key minister Scott Morrison has turn out to be isolated in his defence of coal and refusal to action up local weather ambition, as important Asian trading partners modify study course.

This week by yourself, Japan and South Korea fully commited to slice emissions to web zero by 2050 and the Philippines declared a moratorium on new coal-fired ability plants. Previous thirty day period, China promised to purpose for carbon neutrality by 2060. A flurry of Asian traders have reported they would no longer finance coal projects. It signals a shift away from coal in 3 of Australia’s four most significant export markets.

At household, just about every Australian state and territory has set a 2050 web zero concentrate on and public viewpoint is swinging in favour of a national target to match.

Polling by the Australian Institute introduced on Tuesday observed 68% of Australians believe the federal governing administration really should established a internet zero emissions focus on by 2050. Among Morrison’s base, 59% of respondents determining as centre-proper politically supported the purpose.

On 9 November – the day the Cop26 local weather talks have been in the beginning scheduled to begin – independent lawmaker Zali Steggall is envisioned to table a Local climate Adjust Invoice, forcing a parliamentary discussion of carbon neutrality.

Assessment: Who will establish the world’s last coal plant?

In 2018, Japan, China and South Korea alongside one another accounted for more than 55% of Australia’s complete coal exports – value a overall of $31.4 billion, in accordance to data from think tank Chatham Residence. Citing strength sovereignty, India, another leading coal export destination, has also moved to reduce its reliance on imports.

Whilst falling in value 12 months on yr, coal remained Australia’s next most significant export in 2018.

“Australia is hyper-exposed to going through a remarkably complicated long run as the relaxation of the globe moves away from fossil fuels. Its fossil gasoline exports now properly have a time limit,” Tim Baxter, senior researcher at the Climate Council, instructed Local climate Dwelling Information.

“The actuality is that Australia requirements to undertake a credible climate policy or be still left powering,” he additional – a warning Morrison has so considerably overlooked.

“No I am not concerned about our long term exports,” Morrison explained to reporters for the duration of a press convention on Wednesday.

“I’m really mindful of the quite a few views that are held close to the globe but I explain to you what, our guidelines will be established right here in Australia,” he additional, commenting  on a cellular phone phone with Uk Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who urged him to get “bold motion to tackle local climate change”.

The Uk, set to host the up coming Cop26 weather summit in Glasgow following November, has produced rising the variety of nations committing to carbon neutrality by 2050 a crucial portion of its diplomatic approach.

“Looking in advance to the Local climate Ambition Summit on 12 December and Cop26 in Glasgow subsequent yr, [Johnson] emphasised the significance of environment bold targets to reduce emissions and attain Web Zero,” a Uk govt statement about the cellular phone contact said.

Uk negotiator: Nations need to take care of carbon market dispute to phase up ambition

“For a even though the Morrison govt has been equipped to get a cost-free pass on this simply because we have a local climate denier in the White Dwelling and a quantity of massive Australian partners ended up noticed not to be in the most progressive camp on weather action,” mentioned Thom Woodroofe, senior advisor to previous Australian leading Kevin Rudd, who now qualified prospects the Asia Modern society Coverage Institute.

But with a few of Asian’s big economies committing to carbon neutrality and the prospect of Democrat Joe Biden winning the White Home, Morrison has been left exposed.

“The pitfalls of this isolation are not only economic,” Baxter claimed. “It also has effects for our standing and impact in the intercontinental local community. Australia has now seen its name in the Pacific take a battering.  Pacific Island nations are really vulnerable to local weather improve and are more and more impatient with Australia for its lack of action.”

“The federal government is in a corner and doesn’t want to acknowledge that it has set its bets on one thing that is fundamentally at odds with the way of journey of the world overall economy,” Woodroofe included.

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This week, ANZ Lender introduced it will right away quit funding new coal projects and cease lending to present coal vegetation and mines by 2030 to concentration on renewables, in immediate reaction to China, Japan and South Korea’s internet zero pledges. It is the very last of Australia’s big 4 banking institutions to shift away from coal.

At the sub-nationwide amount, states have the electricity to “take incredibly deep strides to minimize emissions, no matter of the federal authorities,” Baxter stated.

In South Australia, the authorities retired all coal technology assets by Might 2016 and moved from making virtually all of its energy from fossil fuels in the early 2000s to more than half from wind and photo voltaic in 2019.

The Australian Institute poll showed that 83% backed a coal phase-out and 59% supported investments in renewable power as a pathway to economic recovery, with only 12% of respondents backing Morrison’s gas-led recovery.

Woodroofe reported the Morrison administration could nonetheless existing some sort of very long-expression climate approach before Cop26, outlining decarbonisation eventualities even if the prime minister is reluctant to dedicate to a focus on.

Carrying out so would “enhance Australian impact in the region, and primarily between Pacific island states, where by these an announcement would help safe Australia’s position as a spouse of preference,” Wesley Morgan, adjunct research fellow at Griffith Asia Institute, in South East Queensland, informed Local climate Dwelling.

With multi-billion-dollar projects slated for building in Australia’s north to export solar power and environmentally friendly hydrogen to important economies in Asia, “Australia is very well-positioned to reposition as a important exporter of renewable vitality,” he added.

Coal peaked extended back in the west, but ongoing to hold out growth prospective clients in Asia. This week was a turning place.

With Japan and South Korea pledging to reach net zero emissions by 2050, a coal phaseout is the sensible next stage – along with an close to their considerable financing of coal plants overseas.

Meanwhile the Philippines declared a moratorium on new coal crops, impacting some 8GW of planned potential.

Australia looks progressively isolated, with key minister Scott Morrison insisting coal exports will not be impacted and refusing to be part of the internet zero club.

Whilst hundreds of coal vegetation are still in setting up throughout the world, with a shrinking amount of economic institutions eager to back again them, quite a few are very likely to be scrapped. Joe Lo questioned the authorities: who will construct the world’s very last coal plant? Spot your bets.

This week’s tales

Relentless storms

For a reminder of why it matters, glimpse to central Vietnam, in which scores of folks have died in flooding and landslides, amid the worst sequence of storms in many years.

Storm Molave strike the coastline as a group three storm, subsequent three others in as quite a few months.

World warming is earning storms wetter and much more intensive, and specialists say the geography of the location tends to make it specially tough to adapt.

Your transfer, The usa

In situation it requirements saying, Climate Dwelling backs Joe Biden for US president. You know, the applicant who accepts local climate science and has a program to tackle the disaster.

If, as we dare to hope based mostly on the polls, Biden wins next week’s election, he has his operate reduce out to restore US reliability on the earth stage.

In the event of yet another four yrs of Donald Trump, there may possibly be a crumb of comfort and ease in this journal report, which argues free-driving is not as major a drag on local weather action as normally assumed. Talk about.

International locations have a collective obligation to agree on widespread principles for a international carbon marketplace, to drive bigger weather ambition past 2021, in accordance to the UK’s guide local weather negotiator.

Less than the Paris Settlement, international locations have agreed to make a new carbon investing process to slash emissions at lower price tag. But developing a typical established of regulations has proved contentious in current rounds of local climate talks and stays a person of the final unresolved difficulties of the Paris Settlement rulebook.

Australia and Brazil have ongoing to thrust for a investing system with loopholes that would allow for original double counting of emissions reductions and trading of Kyoto-period credits — pink strains for lots of other countries.

Immediately after failing to land a compromise at the very last UN climate talks in Madrid, Spain, previous year, negotiators are beneath stress to solve the problem at the Cop26 summit in Glasgow, United kingdom, in November 2021.

Whilst no climate talks are remaining held this calendar year simply because of the coronavirus pandemic, diplomats are hoping to generate progress on the problem for the duration of casual consultations future month as element of a UN Weather Transform catch-up strategy.

“There is a offer attainable,” Archie Younger, who leads the UK’s local weather negotiating team, advised Local weather House News, stating “genuine development was created in Madrid”.

As lead negotiator for the host nation, Youthful has a vital position in brokering a compromise. “We will do anything that we can to convey get-togethers alongside one another to allow and facilitate people discussions applying our whole diplomatic community,” he reported.

“But obtaining that deal is not merely the responsibility of the Uk as an incoming presidency. It is the duty of all the events that hold robust sights on the situation to work together to comprehend every other’s positions, find compromises, and establish where the proper resolution lies.”

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Youthful stated formidable commitments made by a escalating amount of international locations to slash their emissions to internet zero were being manufactured doable by progress in the multilateral program that underpins the climate conversations.

“The negotiations are not an conclusion in them selves, they are an close to encouraging increased worldwide ambition,” he claimed.

As nations keep on to scramble to reply to the wellness emergency and ensuing economic downturn, Covid-19 has strike governments and their local climate negotiations groups. In the Uk, “we had persons in the group definitely strike tough by Covid and I know every person has,” Younger said.

“Reordering a multilateral procedure in this way is unprecedented,” he extra.

To get the job done toward resolutions in the negotiations on carbon markets and a selection of other issues, the Cop26 group is boosting the matters in bilateral meetings and multilateral functions, Youthful said.

At the identical time, United kingdom key minister Boris Johnson has requested world leaders to convey “bold” new climate targets to an on the internet celebration marking the fifth anniversary of the Paris Arrangement.

“The solution is 1 that very considerably gives the time and space to resolving the negotiations problems but also has to be portion of a broader diplomatic [strategy],” claimed Youthful, to empower international locations to “feel emboldened to make greater development on local climate action”.

South Korea formally commits to chopping emissions to internet zero by 2050

Starting off on 23 November, UN Local weather Transform in collaboration with the United kingdom and Chile are organising a fortnight of on the internet weather gatherings to “maintain momentum in the intergovernmental climate adjust process”.

Identified as the weather dialogues, they consist of complex functions and workshops which had been mandated to acquire area in 2020 — the equal of seven times of complete time negotiations, Marianne Karlsen, Norwegian chair of UN Local weather Change’s implementation physique, told Local climate House.

Contributors will also choose inventory of development created even with the pandemic and go on conversations on important negotiations difficulties these kinds of as carbon markets, adaptation and finance.

Together with Congolese climate diplomat Tosi Mpanu Mpanu, who chairs UN Weather Change’s complex system, the incoming United kingdom Cop26 presidency staff has formulated a joint plan to obtain resolution on carbon markets, Younger stated.

By two sets of informal consultations, which are not negotiations, diplomats will be in a position to trade sights and learn about other countries’ positions in a additional relaxed placing.

Heads of delegations and coordinators of regional groups will be able to exchange their views ahead of a next established of a lot more technical conferences to drill down into ensuring carbon trading permits real and extra emissions cuts.

“I am confident that [these meetings] will be practical for a construct-up of improved comprehending between get-togethers on the place methods to unresolved concerns can be observed,” Mpanu Mpanu instructed Weather Household in an email.

Investigation: Who will establish the world’s very last coal plant?

Studying from past virtual situations held by UN Weather Adjust earlier this calendar year, international locations urged the secretariat to assure this virtual catch-up session did not switch into an online negotiation and that transparency, balance and inclusivity have been respected.

“This is uncharted territory,” Karlsen mentioned. “The workload to 2021 is rather substantial. We will have to function to our very best ability in the present-day conditions.”

The dialogues will acquire area through a new on the net software built to make conversations as “interactive as achievable,” she mentioned, incorporating do the job had been carried out to be certain gender and geographical equilibrium for each event. Some translation will be manufactured and a quantity of events have been scheduled to accommodate negotiators in the Pacific area, whose doing work several hours are instantly opposite to Europe’s.

Even with the uncertainty all over the wellbeing disaster, Youthful hopes a sequence of events on finance and local climate ambition scheduled from November to the stop of the yr and a international summit on adaptation early following yr will enable propel momentum to “the subsequent level” into 2021.

Preparations are nevertheless remaining built for weather talks to just take place in person up coming 12 months. Inspite of increasing willingness to just take local climate function on line, a the greater part of countries oppose official negotiations to choose place in a digital location, citing inclusivity and connectivity problems.

Nations around the world have agreed to review the situation as it evolves in session with the UN Weather Modify bureau, which signifies all parties in the climate talks.

“We recognise that there are constraints on virtual doing work but equally we cannot sit on our hands – we require to get edge of the resources that are at our disposal. Who is aware what next calendar year retains,” Younger reported.

The EU is striving to take out fossil fuels from the listing of investments safeguarded by the Strength Charter Treaty (ECT) in order to cease its member states currently being sued around climate action.

Lately, fossil fuel corporations have made use of the ECT to sue the Slovenian governing administration over environmental protections and obstacle the Dutch government‘s coal phaseout system. The corporations have argued that eco-friendly governing administration insurance policies unfairly harm the value of their property.

Similar cases could price tag taxpayers across the world up to €1.3 trillion ($1.5tn) by 2050, in accordance to the Open up Exp consider tank, primarily based on the price of fossil fuel belongings shielded by the treaty. Just below fifty percent of these expenditures would fall on the EU.

The EU has been pushing for inexperienced reform of the treaty but all 53 ECT nations around the world require to be on board for changes to be made and Japan and Central Asian countries have blocked reforms.

Talking on Monday, the European Commissioner for electricity Kadri Simon reported that “greening” was “at the coronary heart of the [ECT] modernisation process”.

https://www.youtube.com/view?v=b9Zw7SyORXk

A leaked European Comission proposal for ECT reform proposes getting rid of coal, oil and gas from the electricity investments secured by the treaty. If authorized, this rule alter would come into pressure in ten yrs time and investments created in the meantime would not be secured.

Environmental campaigners explained the Commission’s proposal was as well sluggish and had far too a lot of loopholes, particularly on fuel. Paul de Clerck, from Close friends of the Earth Europe accused the EC of “blind pandering to fossil gasoline interests” by “protect[ing] fossil fuels for at the very least a further ten years”.

The EC’s proposal suggests that investments in gas built just before 2030 really should be guarded if they emit less than a particular quantity of CO2 and if their plants and infrastructure empower the use of small-carbon and renewable gases. The EC adds that investments in coal-to-gasoline conversions or gas pipelines which can carry minimal-carbon and renewable gases should be safeguarded right up until 2040.

Poland’s largest utility announces pivot from coal to renewables

The doc also proposes that investments in hydrogen and elements employed to insulate properties ought to be shielded. Hydrogen can be renewable or non-renewable depending on how it is manufactured.

Amandine Van Den Berghe, trade and ecosystem law firm at ClientEarth claimed the Commision’s proposal was “a action in the ideal course but is made up of key loopholes around fuel and non-renewable hydrogen, which maximize the hazard of locking in gas infrastructure and much more foreseeable future emissions”.

Yamina Saheb applied to be the head of the ECT vitality effectiveness unit and now displays negotiations. She said that on Thursday, the doc will be talked over by the European Council’s vitality functioning bash, which is designed up of representatives of the EU’s member states.

Peru and Switzerland indicator ‘world first’ carbon offset offer underneath Paris Settlement

Saheb explained that the proposal was submitted far too late to be discussed at future week’s ECT negotiations and so won’t be mentioned at all this year. The future round of negotiations is scheduled for February or March 2021. Saheb said that whilst the EC’s proposal is “weak from a weather perspective”, the other ECT member states will even now reject it.

Saheb and De Klerk argue that, rather of pushing for reform, the EU really should leave the ECT. States like Luxembourg and France have stated the EU must look at leaving and Italy and Russia have currently begun the system of leaving.

The treaty’s ‘sunset clause’ means that, even if the EU states still left, the ECT’s rules nevertheless apply for 20 decades. Commenting on whether or not this manufactured reform superior than leaving, Saheb said that 80% of power investments in the EU are from fellow EU or EFTA international locations so, when they go away, these nations around the world could also concur to end the sunset clause involving on their own. They need to then approach very carefully so as to stay away from authorized conditions above the 20% of investments from outdoors of Europe, she said.

President Moon Jae-in has announced South Korea will dedicate to attaining carbon neutrality by 2050, turning an election guarantee into a policy pledge.  

“Together with the global local community, we will actively respond to weather adjust and intention for carbon neutrality by 2050,” he explained in a speech to parliament on Wednesday — reaffirming options for a Inexperienced New Deal that voters overwhelmingly backed in April. 

“By replacing coal ability era with renewable electrical power, we will build new marketplaces and industries and produce work opportunities,” he reported. 

Moon’s announcement arrived two times immediately after Japan fully commited to the 2050 net zero focus on and reported it would rethink its reliance on coal. Previous month, China surprised the planet when it pledged to reach carbon neutrality by 2060. 

“The recent announcements from Japan and China have surely put tension on Korea to announce a goal 12 months for carbon neutrality,” Joojin Kim, handling director of South Korean campaign team Alternatives For Our Climate, advised Local climate Household Information. 

Evaluation: Who will establish the world’s very last coal plant?

In July, Moon introduced programs for a $37 billion Green New Deal aimed at boosting green infrastructure, thoroughly clean power and electrical cars by 2025. On Wednesday, he declared a even more $7 billion paying on carbon-cutting actions. 

“We are replacing previous structures and general public rental housing with eco-welcoming facilities and investing 2.4 trillion [korean won] in the eco-friendly changeover for city areas and every day infrastructure,” Moon explained.

As aspect of its Green New Deal, South Korea aims to have 1.13 million electric and 200,000 hydrogen cars on the roads by 2025. 

Moon’s announcement coincided with a visit from Cop26 president-designate and United kingdom enterprise and electricity minister Alok Sharma. Sharma explained in a tweet President Moon’s announcement followed a “very productive 72 hours of meetings with govt ministers, parliamentarians, firms & intercontinental organisations”.

As figurehead for the Cop26 UN local weather summit in Glasgow, United kingdom up coming November, Sharma is in search of to mobilise larger climate ambition from other governments.

At the finish of a extremely productive 72 hours of conferences with govt ministers, parliamentarians, businesses & global organisations, I’m delighted with the announcement by President Moon that South Korea 🇰🇷 has currently dedicated to #NetZero by 2050! #COP26#TacklingClimateChange

— Alok Sharma (@AlokSharma_RDG) Oct 28, 2020

Campaigners welcomed South Korea’s web zero pledge but warned it will choose a finish coal stage-out to meet its aim. 

South Korea has 36 GW of coal energy capability, which provides over 40% of the country’s electrical power technology, and a even further 7.2 GW is beneath design, according to World wide Electricity Keep an eye on info. Renewables at this time make up a lot less than 6% of the country’s vitality blend. 

Assessment by Climate Analytics discovered South Korea will have to increase its 2030 emissions reduction concentrate on from 37% to at the very least 74%, and 50 percent its emissions in the up coming 10 years if it is to satisfy its Paris commitments. 

Kim told Climate Residence the governing administration would require to overhaul its coal coverage to meet the 2050 purpose.  “The most urgent responsibilities are maximizing its 2030 emissions reduction focus on, presenting a distinct roadmap to period out coal by 2030, and placing a total stop to coal financing,” he stated. 

Philippines declares moratorium on new coal electricity vegetation

South Korea is a single of the three major general public financiers of overseas coal assignments globally, according to Options For Our Local climate. In July, South Korean lawmakers proposed a monthly bill that would conclude financing for overseas coal jobs but campaigners say it remains unclear whether or not the proposal has a greater part assistance in parliament. 

“We are waiting around for the govt to announce a whole moratorium on abroad coal challenge financing and exit from freshly greenlit tasks in Indonesia (Jawa 9, 10) and Vietnam (Vung Ang 2),” Kim reported. 

The announcement places force on other big emitters these as Australia and the US to ramp up their local climate ambition. 4 of Australia’s top rated 10 investing companions, the Uk, Japan, China and South Korea, have all established web zero targets, likely dampening demand for its coal exports.

Australian prime minister Scott Morrison said he would not transform Australia’s weather coverage in reaction to the information. “I am not involved about our future exports. Australia will established our guidelines below. Our procedures won’t be set in the United Kingdom, they won’t be set in Brussels, they will not be established in any component of the planet other than here,” he explained to reporters on Wednesday. 

The Filipino government will no lengthier acknowledge proposals to build new coal energy vegetation, in a important plan shift made to strengthen the deployment of renewable electricity.

Energy secretary Alfonso Cusi announced the state will declare a moratorium on new greenfield coal-fired electrical power crops in a speech all through Singapore Global Strength Week on Tuesday.

“As the Philippine Section of Power re-evaluates the appropriateness of our latest energy mix vis-a-vis our vitality objectives, I am optimistic that this would guide to a lot more alternatives for renewable electricity to determine prominently in our country’s vitality long term.

“We are also pushing for the changeover from fossil gas-centered technologies utilisation to cleaner power sources to ensure more sustainable growth for the place,” he reported.

Campaigners have hailed the choice as a “welcome step forward” for the Philippines, wherever coal accounted for approximately 50 percent of energy creation in 2019. A pipeline of 12GW of new coal jobs beneath several stages of construction and arranging would have far more than doubled the country’s coal ability.

Of that 12GW, the moratorium is probable to put a prevent to 8GW of pre-allow coal initiatives, in accordance to details from World Energy Observe analysed by consider tank E3G. The governing administration has nonetheless to explain which options are envisioned to facial area the axe.

Position your bets: Who will construct the world’s past coal plant?

“The announcement is essential for the reason that it’s a an open declaration to the sort of overseas investments that the governing administration would like to appeal to,” Red Constantino, government director of the Philippines-dependent Institute for Weather and Sustainable Cities told Local weather House News.

“It’s a immediate signal to the trader local community equally in the place but also abroad that the Philippines want… adaptable renewable electrical power. It is a really exciting time,” he added.

Despite the fact that not packaged as climate plan, Constantino stated the final decision would put the Philippines “on a pathway to decarbonisation”. “It’s not likely to be sufficient but it is a significant move in the appropriate way,” he explained.

Sara Jane Ahmed, a Manila-based energy finance analyst for the Institute for Strength Economics and Monetary Assessment (Ieefa), advised Local weather Residence that southeast Asia and south Asia experienced extended been “the previous bastions of coal growth”.

“This is a apparent indication the Philippines is now modernising its electrical power technique. This moratorium is a signal that politics will no longer prop up lousy economics. Coal players looking to market outdated coal technological know-how to developing countries overseas will have to look somewhere else,” she stated.

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In a statement, the power department claimed the final decision aimed to establish a more flexible power supply combine that could be “resilient in the experience of structural modifications in demand… and accommodate the entry of new cleaner and indigenous technological innovations”.

The Philippines depend on a especially rigid electricity grid which is intensely dependent on significant coal crops to give baseload electrical power – generating it hard and expensive to get coal vegetation offline to regulate to altering desire.

This has led to frequent electricity outages and raising disruptions in the energy sector. The coronavirus pandemic exacerbated the difficulty as coal bore the brunt of a collapse in desire although renewables were being greater suited to fulfill fluctuating demands.

Local climate predictions of additional repeated and intense extraordinary climate occasions this sort of as typhoons also place to the require for a far more adaptable strength technique.

Constantino stated observers had been expecting the authorities to announce the modernisation of the vitality grid prior to the nation went into lockdown.

“The pandemic delayed that choice but also affirmed it – what they required to do right before Covid-19 grew to become even more essential. The fantasy of coal of being a lot more trustworthy ended.”

Vietnam braces for Storm Molave, in worst tropical storm period for many years

With falling costs and strengthening storage engineering, the government hopes to expand renewables in the electricity mix and help decrease the substantial charge of electric power. It is also predicted to finalise conversations about no matter if to import pure fuel this calendar year.

At the identical time, the government wishes to stimulate foreign investments in massive scale geothermal initiatives by announcing a rest of rules on foreign ownership restrictions.

As the moratorium on new coal ability plants is a temporary evaluate, campaigners are contacting on Manila to adopt a additional permanent plan to conclude coal improvement.

“We want the authorities to completely quit the expansion of the coal sector and eventually we would like to see a section-out strategy,” Lidy Nacpil, coordinator of the Asian Peoples’ Movement on Debt and Growth (APMDD) told Local climate Dwelling, expressing gas need to not be applied as a changeover fuel.

Nacpil additional that the significance of the announcement will be judged by what the moratorium covers, contacting on all new coal vegetation in the pipeline to be scrapped.

In May 2019, UN chief Antonio Guterres urged the world: “Stop building new coal plants by 2020.”

His unusually prescriptive solution to the climate crisis was inspired by a tour of the Pacific, where he saw the vulnerability of small island states to rising seas and weather extremes.

At the time, Guterres’ plea looked ambitious in the extreme. Coal expansion was big business, driven by major Asian powers.

Eighteen months later, while hundreds of coal plants are still in planning worldwide, the political and investment landscape has shifted dramatically. An end to the global coal plant boom is no longer such a distant prospect.

China’s pledge to reach net zero emissions by 2060 implies no unabated coal burning in 40 years – the typical life expectancy of a power station. Coal-reliant countries including South Korea, South Africa and Japan are aiming for net zero by 2050.

Tracker: Which countries have a net zero carbon goal?

The economic case for coal has continued to weaken. The International Energy Agency, which has long been accused of being overly negative about renewables, this month crowned solar “the new king of electricity”, saying it delivers cheaper power than new coal plants in most countries.

In the past year companies including Samsung and General Electric have announced they’ll stop building coal plants and major funders like Blackrock and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank have pledged to stop financing them.

But coal projects won’t all be halted overnight. Those hoping to delay its death include coal workers and their trade unions, coal company bosses, coal-rich national and provincial governments and any government official who can get a kickback from approving a deal.

So where will the world’s last coal-fired power plant be built? Here’s our guide to the likely hold-outs.

The coal giants

China

While its net zero emissions pledge entails little future for coal, as of July 2020 China had power stations planned at 127 locations and under construction at 104. The country’s next five-year plan to 2025 is expected to allow for some new coal capacity.

Ted Nace, executive director at Global Energy Monitor, is putting his money on China to build the last coal plant. They have the experience, cheap labour and materials to build plants cheaper and faster than anyone else, he says, adding: “Just as China’s coal plant industrial complex took a large commitment of resources and national will to develop, it will likely be harder to unwind, from a political and economic standpoint, than in other countries.”

Tim Buckley from the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (Ieefa) agrees that planned coal plants in China are more likely to be built than those in Vietnam or Indonesia, for example.

China remains by far the world’s biggest producer of coal and coal-rich provincial governments want to use those resources to drive economic growth. Building power stations creates jobs in construction, steel, cement and property. Provincial bigwigs in Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi or Xingjiang could make China the last nation to build a plant, despite Beijing’s green ambitions.

Indonesia

After China, Indonesia has the most power stations in pre-construction phases of planning (52). Ieefa’s Buckley describes this as a “stupidly big pipeline” which, if fully realised, will leave them with excess generation capacity.

While most will be cancelled, he says, some will go ahead. This is likely to make Indonesia the last country to build one “just because otherwise they’ve got a shedload of totally useless coal which will otherwise have to stay in the ground”, he says.

While Global Energy Monitor’s Nace is confident the last plant will be Chinese-built, he says it could be outside of China. There are about 40 Chinese overseas coal plants scheduled for after 2027 and, while Nace anticipates most of these will be cancelled, one could be the world’s last.

“Among these possible plants, I’d guess that the last one built will be in Indonesia, since it is the country in this cohort that is also a significant mining country and for that reason is somewhat more politically committed to coal,” he said. The other nations are Sri Lanka, Vietnam, Bangladesh and Bosnia-Herzegovnia.

Coal processing at a mine in East Kalimantan (Picture: ILO/Flickr)

The waverers

India

A few years ago, India was vigorously pursing coal but now it only has plants in pre-construction in 28 locations. This is one less than Turkey, a fact Global Energy Monitor calls “unthinkable just a few years ago when China and India together dominated development”. In 2019, India’s coal power generation fell by 3% and its pre-construction pipeline fell by half, largely because of financing problems.

Despite this slowdown, Wei Shen, a political economist at the Institute of Development Studies, University of Sussex, says: “India and Indonesia may both see more capacities of coal power in the future”.

Unlike China, India has no net zero emissions target. Millions of Indians lack access to electricity, while average citizen’s wealth and carbon footprint is far smaller than in China. In some places, developers will make the case for coal power to expand energy access, support industrial growth and lift people out of poverty, even as solar becomes increasingly competitive.

Turkey

Turkey has the world’s third largest pre-construction pipeline with plants in 29 locations planned. On the other hand, it has a track record of cancellations, scrapping 80 projects this decade.

The country’s coal push has been driven by geopolitics. After a Turkish jet shot down a Russian one in 2015, the two nations have been at loggerheads, so Turkey is seeking to wean itself off Russian gas. But renewables are a far more popular alternative to gas than coal and Turkey has more than enough sunshine, wind and land to make them work.

Turkey has pursued coal as an alternative to Russian gas (Picture: Russian Presidency)

Pakistan

Pakistan has coal plants under pre-construction in nine locations. The country has large coal reserves and an active coal lobby arguing that they should be used. Pakistan’s influential military has a strong relationship with China and so the government is unlikely to cancel any Chinese-built coal power plants.

On the other hand, since 2018 prime minister Imran Khan has taken a more sceptical stance on Chinese-backed coal projects and sought to renegotiate partnership deals. In 2019, Pakistan shelved the US$2bn Rahim Yar Khan plant.

Vietnam

Vietnam has recently indicated that it will postpone the building of six coal power projects until 2030. If these were to be built, they could well be the last in the world. According to Ieefa’s Minh Thu Vu though, the chances are decreasing.

Provincial authorities and communities are becoming increasingly loud in opposition to coal, while solar and wind are becoming cheaper and more attractive to foreign investors.

Hanoi and Saigon are two of the world’s most polluted cities (Picture: 350.org)

The wild cards

Laos

The small Mekong river nation has historically relied mainly on hydropower but it’s coal use has been increasing over the last few years. It has recently proposed building two new coal power plants and exporting the power to Cambodia.

Bosnia-Herzegovnia

The Balkan country has coal power plants in operation in five locations and planned in seven more, primarily to protect jobs in state-owned coal mines. The plants have faced opposition and legal setbacks though, conflicting with its government’s stated green ambitions and proposed membership of the European Union.

The recent converts

Bangladesh

Until recently, coal exporters were banking on Bangladesh building more plants. But this year’s economic slowdown has highlighted the country’s expensive excess energy capacity and, as prime minister Sheikh Hasina urges leaders to do more to save Bangladesh from the impacts of climate change, she is keen to set a good example.

While five coal power plants are under construction and likely to be completed, 11 in planning are set to be scrapped and 13 converted to run on gas.

Bangladesh is vulnerable to climate change impacts (Picture: Joe Coyle/Flickr)

The Philippines

The Philippines has ramped up its coal-fired power capacity over the 2010s and has plants at a further 13 locations planned, mainly in the north. But coal faces opposition from the powerful Catholic church and the government this month declared a moratorium on new coal power plants.

South Africa

Under the Apartheid-era blockade, South Africa struggled to import oil and became hugely reliant on domestically produced coal. Mining remains a significant industry.

Now though, it has become the only major developing country to set a net zero emissions target of 2050. Two coal power plants currently under construction (Kusile and Medupi) are widely expected be its last.

Poland

Poland gets the vast majority of its electricity from coal and the country’s influential coal miners’ unions have been keen to keep it that way, despite pressure from the rest of the EU.

In September though, the government and unions struck a deal to stop mining hard coal by 2049. Poland’s biggest utility then announced it was trying to offload its coal assets and pivot to renewables. While critics say 2049 is far too late for a phase-out, the announcement makes it harder than ever to justify a new coal plant.

Japan

The world’s third largest economy currently gets about a third of its energy from coal. Incoming prime minister Yoshihide Suga recently announced he would “fundamentally shift our long-standing policy on coal-fired power generation” in line with a target of net zero emissions by 2050. Given this, it’s probably a question of how quickly the coal plants close, not whether new ones will be built.

South Korea

Days after its Japanese neighbour, South Korea confirmed a net zero commitment, fulfilling a manifesto promise from earlier in the year. Re-elected president Moon-Jae In said the country would be “replacing coal power generation with renewable energy”. Korea’s energy is currently about 40% coal-powered.

Vietnam is staying hit by the most intensive series of tropical storms in a long time, placing hundreds of thousands of folks at risk of dropping their properties and livelihoods.

Typhoon Molave is predicted to make a landfall with a pressure equal to a classification 3 hurricane in the central area of Vietnam on Wednesday early morning local time. It is the fourth tropical storm to batter the southeast Asian place since 11 Oct and the ninth considering that the get started of the calendar year.

The collection of unusually close and extreme storms has induced devastating flooding and landslides throughout Vietnam’s central area.

As of Tuesday, 130 people have been described to have died, 18 individuals had been lacking and just about 300,000 residences had collapsed or had been harmed by flood waters, in accordance to area assessments by NGOs and UN organizations.

Even though rescue functions and distinct-ups from the floods haven’t completed, the provinces of Quang Ngai and Da Nang are bracing for one more strike as Molave helps make its way from the Philippines throughout the South China Sea.

“Molave is anticipated to be the strongest and deadliest storm to strike Vietnam this year… and one particular of the most significant storms we have witnessed in many years,” Nguyen Hai Anh, vice president and secretary typical of Vietnam Crimson Cross informed Local climate Property Information.

“We are quite anxious about the protection of people today as lots of have dropped their lives and livelihoods in the floods and communities have had no time to recuperate.”

Japan internet zero emissions pledge places coal in the highlight

Local climate projections in the region forecast the intensity of typhoons to rise, the frequency of serious rainfall gatherings to boost resulting in flash floods and landslides, and the rainy period which usually runs from August/September to December to lengthen.

“Vietnam is a country that is used to normal floods and hurricanes, but this month’s rainfall stages are incredible and it will go down as just one of the most devastating seasons in the previous handful of decades,” claimed Pamela McElwee, professor of human ecology at Rutgers University, New Jersey, who reports environmental concerns in Vietnam.

This sequence of again-to-back rigorous storms all hitting the identical region in the central portion of the state is particularly strange, she informed Climate Property.

Storm Molave will increase anxiety to an location now saturated with “excess flood waters” and things “will get even worse,” she additional.

With winds of up to 150 km/h predicted, properties, college structures, hospitals and offices that withstood the first three storms are at bigger threat of collapse.

Hai Anh said Vietnam Crimson Cross was working “around the clock” to provide crisis aid and assist neighborhood authorities evacuating 1.5 million men and women in the region. But conditions in unexpected emergency shelters are “poor” and far more foods relief is desired, Hung Tran Mahn, Vietnam crisis coordinator for NGO Care International, told CHN.

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Almost 15,000 hectares of agricultural land have so considerably been harmed by the floods and additional than 767,000 livestock have been missing.

Although most of the rice cultivated in the area was harvested right before the storms, enormous quantities of rice, maize and cassava flour saved in properties have been destroyed.

“At least 150,000 folks will require food items aid in the future six months,” Tran Mahn explained.

And even though documented Covid-19 cases have been small in the region, a circulation of evacuees into neighbouring Laos heightens the risk of new infections.

Flood problems in Quang Tri province in central Vietnam
(Photo: Lucy Beck/ Care Global )

It could acquire the central provinces “years to get well,” Hai Anh mentioned, with UN companies and Vietnam’s countrywide catastrophe and administration authority estimating the damage just before the Molave typhoon at $45-50 million.

Mai Van Khiem, director of Vietnam’s Nationwide Center for Hydro-meteorology Forecasting, has in contrast Molave with storm Damrey that strike the state in 2017, killing extra than 150 men and women and expense extra than $1bn in harm.

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The Vietnamese governing administration has allocated 500 billion VND ($21.6 million) to guidance the reduction and restoration endeavours in 5 affected provinces. UN businesses and the Asian Progress Financial institution have provided additional than $3 million in assist but humanitarian organisations say extra global aid is essential.

McElwee said local climate projections highlighted how difficult it would be for Vietnam to adapt to for a longer time and far more powerful storm seasons. The densely populated and slim central coastline of the state is wedged among mountains and the sea with “nowhere for surplus drinking water to go,” she mentioned.

In the climate adaptation program Vietnam submitted to the UN previous month, the federal government reported the country was “facing loss and destruction from weather improve which are past the country’s skill to cope with even when weather change adaptation and mitigation measures are correctly applied”.

Concerning 1995 and 2017, injury brought about by serious temperature functions price the country an regular of $1bn a year and elevated 12.7% annually. Most of the losses were being induced by destruction to rice manufacturing.

The government stated national assets only meet about 30% of the monetary will need for local weather adaptation, with believed costs to exceed 3-5% of the country’s GDP by 2030 and arrive at $35 billion around the next decade.

Japan will slash its carbon emissions to web zero by 2050, the key minster declared on Monday – a main shift in local climate ambition for the world’s third premier financial system.

Yoshihide Suga indicated his govt would rethink its reliance on coal, as an alternative backing solar electric power and “carbon recycling” – capturing carbon dioxide emissions for different industrial purposes.

“I declare we will aim to realise a decarbonised modern society,” Suga mentioned in his very first plan address to parliament considering that using business office. 

“Responding to climate change is no more time a constraint on financial development. We need to have to change our pondering to the watch that taking assertive actions from weather improve will lead to variations in industrial composition and the economic climate that will carry about fantastic advancement.”

Japan has confronted mounting global pressure to fortify its weather commitments. The prior administration would only aim for an 80% emissions reduction by 2050, in comparison to 2010 amounts, and carbon neutrality “at the earliest feasible time in the latter 50 percent of this century.”

I warmly welcome 🇯🇵 to the intention that all produced nations should really established for them selves to prevent local weather change.

🇯🇵 is a good mate and ally and we look ahead to operating with them toward web zero emissions in 2050. The globe is coming alongside one another for the weather.

— Ursula von der Leyen (@vonderleyen) Oct 26, 2020

Suga’s announcement follows China’s 2060 carbon neutrality pledge past month.

Tracker: Which countries have a web zero carbon goal?

Japan is the world’s fifth major emitter of carbon dioxide and has 48 GW of coal power potential, which offer nearly a third of its electrical energy era. Yet another 7.4 GW are below building and 2.5 GW in arranging, according Worldwide Strength Monitor facts. The country’s coal use enhanced right after the 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster stoked fears around atomic energy – its other main resource.

Under the existing electrical power plan, coal, oil and gasoline continue to account for 56% of the power blend in 2030. Renewables are only expected to present 22-24% of ability technology. The ministry for economic system, trade, and marketplace (Meti) is owing to publish a revised electrical power prepare up coming June.

Without having heading into detail, Suga hinted his governing administration would address the country’s dependence on coal. “We will fundamentally shift our long-standing plan on coal-fired electric power technology,” he said for the duration of his speech.

“This is a basic improve. Japan has always observed coal as an significant export product and also domestically as an critical source for power stability,” Takeshi Kuramochi, climate coverage researcher at NewClimate Institute, instructed Weather Household Information.

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Weather campaigners are contacting for clarity on Japan’s emissions reduction and renewables targets for 2030 and a determination to phasing out coal by this day. 

In accordance to Japan’s Renewable Electrical power Institute (REI), Japan’s net zero goal needs a full phaseout of coal by 2030, escalating the renewable power concentrate on to 45% and elevating the emissions reduction focus on for 2030 to 45% in contrast to 2010 degrees. The present-day focus on is 26% compared to 2013 amounts.

“It is important to appreciably improve the GHG reduction target for 2030, and to absolutely phase out coal-fired electric power generation, like individuals [plants] which have been named ‘high efficiency’”, mentioned Teruyuki Ohno, REI’s government director. 

Japan’s weather approach has focused seriously on technological improvements to suppress emissions, this sort of as carbon capture and storage (CCS) and high-effectiveness coal energy technology, sometimes called ‘clean coal’.

In June, the minister for economic system, trade, and field (Meti) Hiroshi Kajiyama said Japan would stage out 90% of old and inefficient coal turbines by 2030 and concentrate on cleaner, higher effectiveness coal.

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Campaigners say equally systems are insufficient answers to get to internet zero emissions.

“’Clean coal’ is not cleanse. It only achieves a 10% reduction in CO2 emissions. It is time to overview this tactic and make investments in renewables. Those want to be supported totally so that we can anticipate a deep [emissions] reduction prior to 2030,” Kimiko Hirata, intercontinental director of the Kiko community, a Japanese environmental NGO, explained to Weather Home Information. 

“Clean coal will have to be set to the side,” Kuramochi agreed. “There is just no room for new power crops, in whatever format.”

There is no obvious evidence that CCS technology can be commercialised in a charge successful way, Hirata claimed. “In Japan there is no locale to shop that [carbon dioxide].”

Hirata said Meti had promoted technologies this kind of as CCS to defend the interests of fossil fuel corporations who have potent ties with the government. “CCS delivers subsidies to heavy industries, which include the electric power and metal sectors,” she stated. 

The roadmap to attaining internet zero by 2050 “will be very controversial” as Meti and the ministry of natural environment are probably to undertake different strategies, according to Hirata.

Japan’s preferred surroundings minister Shinjiro Koizumi has been pushing for the nation to transform its coal policy and has referred to as on the federal government to finish abroad coal finance. But Meti has pretty much 100% command above coal plan and “will have supreme power” when it comes to how to achieve the internet zero concentrate on, Hirata explained. 

In accordance to Kuramochi, the government’s 2050 pledge was partly pushed by a private sector keen to go away from coal and see far more expenditure in renewable, local weather-pleasant systems. “Meti are choosing up on this development rising in the business sector and their stance is shifting,” he mentioned.

To end dangerous overheating of the planet, humans need to stop putting more greenhouse gases into the air than we take out.

The 2015 Paris Agreement set a global goal (couched in legalese) to reach net zero emissions in the second half of the century.

An increasing number of governments are translating that into national strategy, setting out visions of a carbon-free future. Is it enough? Of course not. But it is becoming the benchmark for leadership on the world stage.

Here is a handy guide to who is promising what.

This article was last updated on 22 September 2020. If we have missed something, let us know by emailing [email protected]

For more on the origins of the net zero target, read our deep dive

Austria

Target date: 2040

Status: Policy position

Notes: A coalition government sworn in January 2020 promised to pursue climate neutrality by 2040 and 100% clean electricity by 2030, underpinned by binding carbon targets. The right wing People’s Party agreed to the goals in partnership with the Green Party.

Bhutan

Target date: Currently carbon negative and aiming for carbon neutrality as it develops

Status: Pledged towards the Paris Agreement

Notes: With a population of less than a million, on low incomes, surrounded by forests and hydropower resources, Bhutan has an easier task balancing the carbon accounts than most. It has some green policies, but economic growth and rising demand for cars is putting upward pressure on emissions.

California

Target date: 2045

Status: Executive order

Notes: Okay so it’s not a country, but if it were, it would have the fifth largest economy in the world – worth paying attention to. Former governor Jerry Brown signed the carbon neutral order in September 2018, catching a lot of people by surprise. While the state passed a law around the same time to make electricity 100% renewable by 2045, policies to green other sectors are less mature. Vox had a decent explainer at the time.

In the absence of federal ambition, a handful of other US cities and states are pursuing net zero goals, including New York City and Hawaii.

Canada

Target date: 2050

Status: Policy position

Notes: Justin Trudeau narrowly scraped a second term as prime minister in October 2019, on a platform that centred climate action. He promised to set a net zero emissions goal, with legally binding five-yearly carbon budgets. His Liberal Party falling short of a majority in parliament, Trudeau will need to broker deals with smaller parties to pass that law. Trudeau walked a tightrope on climate and energy policy in his first term, pushing through a carbon tax while defending controversial oil pipelines. He continues to face pressure from leftist and green parties to block the pipelines and from oil-producing provinces to water down climate policy.

Tar sands in Alberta, Canada (Photo: Kris Krüg/Flickr)

Chile

Target date: 2050

Status: Policy position

Notes: President Sebastian Piñera announced the country’s intention to go carbon neutral in June 2019. Santiago was due to host UN climate talks later that year, but cancelled at the last minute due to civil unrest. In April 2020 the government reiterated its long term goal as it submitted a strengthened medium term pledge to the UN. For starters, the country will close eight of its 28 coal power plants by 2024 and phase out the fuel by 2040.

China

Target date: 2060

Status: Statement of intent

Notes: President Xi Jinping announced to the UN General Assembly on 22 September 2020 that China would strive to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050. The country would adopt “more vigorous policies and measures” to peak emissions before 2030, he added. Beijing has prioritised clean energy in its recovery from the coronavirus pandemic, but many provinces are building new coal power plants to boost economic growth.

Costa Rica

Target date: 2050

Status: Submission to UN

Notes: Previous administrations said Costa Rica would be carbon neutral by 2021, which is… not happening. In February 2019, president Carlos Alvarado Quesada set out a climate policy package. A long term strategy submitted to the UN in December confirmed net zero emissions as the 2050 goal. The country is routinely celebrated for getting nearly all its electricity from renewables – primarily hydropower – but citizens still rely on petrol and diesel to get around. An e-mobility decree adopted in 2018 aims to change that.

Carlos Alvarado Quesada on the campaign trail for the Costa Rican presidency (Photo: Facebook/Carlos Alvarado Quesada)

Denmark

Target date: 2050

Status: In law

Notes: The government set out plans in 2018 to build a “climate-neutral society” by 2050. Its package included a ban on sales of new petrol and diesel cars from 2030 and support for electric vehicles. Climate change was a major theme in June 2019 parliamentary elections and the victorious “red bloc” parties enshrined tougher emissions targets in legislation passed six months later.

European Union

Target date: 2050

Status: Submission to UN

Notes: The European Commission is working towards a bloc-wide 2050 net zero emissions target, under a “Green Deal” published in December 2019. It was endorsed by the European Council of national leaders the same month, with Poland the only dissenting voice, refusing to commit to its implementation. The long term strategy was presented to the UN in March 2030.

Fiji

Target date: 2050

Status: Submission to UN

Notes: As president of Cop23, the UN climate summit in 2017, Fiji made an extra effort to show leadership. In 2018, the Pacific island state submitted a plan to the UN with the goal of net zero carbon emissions across all sectors of the economy. Its “very high ambition” scenario even goes carbon negative, but this is contingent on new technologies and international support.

A Fijian welcome ceremony at the 2017 UN climate talks (Photo: UNFCCC)

Finland

Target date: 2035

Status: Coalition agreement

Notes: Five political parties agreed in June 2019 to strengthen the country’s climate law, as part of negotiations to form a government. The target is expected to require curbs on industrial logging and a phaseout of peat burning for power generation.

France

Target date: 2050

Status: In law

Notes: French lawmakers voted a net zero target into law on 27 June 2019, the same day as the UK. Other parts of the government’s proposed climate and energy package remained to be agreed. Controversially, it proposed postponing nuclear power plant closures. In its first report in June, the newly established High Council for the Climate advised France must triple the pace of emissions reductions to meet the carbon neutrality goal.

Germany

Target date: 2050

Status: In law (sort of)

Notes: Germany’s first major climate law entered into force in December 2019, detailing sector-specific annual emissions budgets for the next decade and establishing an expert commission. It was backed by a policy package including carbon pricing for transport and buildings, a controversial coal phaseout and support for electric vehicles. The introduction to the law says Germany will “pursue” greenhouse gas neutrality by 2050.

Hungary

Target date: 2050

Status: In law

Notes: Hungary committed to climate neutrality by 2050 in a 3-page climate law passed in June 2020. That was not backed up by a strengthened 2030 emissions-cutting target, however, putting off the heavy lifting to next decade. The country is set to close its last coal power plant by 2025 and build new nuclear capacity, with Russia’s help.

Iceland

Target date: 2040

Status: Policy position

Notes: The strategy unveiled in 2018 focuses on phasing fossil fuels out of the transport sector, tree-planting and restoring wetlands. Iceland already has virtually carbon-free electricity and heating from geothermal and hydroelectric sources.

Krafla geothermal power plant in Iceland (Photo: Ásgeir Eggertsson)

Ireland

Target date: 2050

Status: Coalition agreement

Notes: In a coalition deal finalised in June 2020, three political parties agreed to set a 2050 net zero emissions target in law, with annual reductions of 7% in the coming decade. It reinforces the long-term target of the previous government’s climate strategy published in June 2019, while promising more action in the short term. The incoming government scrapped plans for an LNG import terminal and backed an expansion of offshore wind. Critics said more measures were needed to tackle farming emissions.

Japan

Target date: 2050

Status: Statement of intent

Notes: In October 2020, Japan announced its 2050 net zero target. Japan is the world’s fifth-largest emitter and relies on coal for a third of its electricity generation. The net zero target requires significant investment in renewables and a complete overhaul of the country’s existing climate strategy which focuses heavily on coal power. 

Marshall Islands

Target date: 2050

Status: Pledged towards the Paris Agreement

Notes: The low-lying island nation is acutely vulnerable to sea level rise and keen to set an example on decarbonisation. Its updated submission to the UN in September 2018 set out an aspiration to reach net zero emissions by 2050, albeit without concrete policies to get all the way. Depending on the availability of international support, the plan identified measures to cut emissions 56-87% from 2010 levels.

New Zealand

Target date: 2050

Status: In law

Notes: Unusually for a developed country, New Zealand’s biggest source of emissions is farming. A law passed in November 2019 sets a net zero goal for all greenhouse gases except biogenic methane (mostly from sheep and cattle), which is to be cut 24-47% from 2017 levels by 2050. It remains contentious with the meat lobby, which argues New Zealand will lose market share to countries with less stringent sustainability standards.

Norway

Target date: 2030/2050

Status: Policy position

Notes: Norway was among the first parliaments in the world to discuss climate neutrality, with lawmakers agreeing to aim for 2050 domestically and 2030 with international offsets. This was just a signal of intent, not a binding climate law. The country benefits from abundant hydropower resources and has aggressive policies to electrify road transport, yet the government continues to back controversial Arctic oil drilling.

Portugal

Target date: 2050

Status: Policy position

Notes: Portugal launched a roadmap in December 2018 for getting to net zero, outlining strategies for energy, transport, waste, farming and forests. It is one of the member states calling for the EU to adopt a 2050 net zero target.

Singapore

Target date: “As soon as viable in the second half of the century”

Status: Submission to UN

Notes: Like Japan, Singapore has avoided committing to a firm date for decarbonisation, but cited it as the ultimate goal of a long term strategy submitted to the UN in March 2020. Internal combustion engine vehicles are to be phased out by 2040, in favour of electric vehicles, but the island state said its clean energy potential was limited by a lack of space for solar panels.

Slovakia

Target date: 2050

Status: Policy position

Notes: One of the first EU member states to formally submit a long term strategy to the UN, Slovakia said it was aiming for “climate neutrality” in 2050. However the document focused on policies out to 2030 and noted further measures would need to be developed to meet the target.

South Africa

Target date: 2050

Status: Policy position

Notes: The government unveiled its Low Emission Development Strategy (LEDS) in September 2020, outlining its aim of becoming a net zero economy by 2050. However, the energy plan cited in the strategy still sees South Africa burning coal on this date. Currently over 90% of the country’s electricity is generated from coal and the country is building coal plants as well as supporting investment in renewables.

South Korea

Target date: 2050

Status: Policy position

Notes: The ruling Democratic Party was returned to power by a landslide in the April 2020 election. Voters endorsed its “Green New Deal” to decarbonise the economy by 2050 and end coal financing, as well as showing approval of the government’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic. It is the first commitment of its kind in East Asia and a big deal for the 7th highest national CO2 emitter. South Korea gets around 40% of its electricity from coal and has been a major financer of coal plants abroad.

Spain

Target date: 2050

Status: Draft law

Notes: The government presented its draft climate framework bill to parliament in May 2020, as the country started to loosen restrictions on movement to halt the spread of coronavirus. Originally intended to create a long term framework for cutting emissions, the law doubles as a blueprint for economic recovery from Covid-19, said vice president Teresa Ribera. It sets interim targets for 2030, establishes a commission to monitor progress and bans new coal, oil and gas exploration licences with immediate effect.

Sweden

Target date: 2045

Status: In law

Notes: Sweden legislated its net zero target in 2017, bringing forward its timeline for carbon neutrality by five years in response to the Paris Agreement. It got extra attention in contrast with Donald Trump’s move to withdraw the US from the pact. At least 85% of the emissions cuts are to be achieved through domestic policies, leaving the door open for international credits to make up the rest.

Sweden’s deputy prime minister Isabella Lovin referring the climate law to parliament in February 2017 (Photo: Facebook/Isabella Lovin)

Switzerland

Target date: 2050

Status: Policy position

Notes: The Federal Council announced on 28 August 2019 its intention to reach net zero carbon emissions by 2050, deepening its target under the Paris Agreement of a 70-85% emission reduction. Parliament is in the process of revising its climate legislation. The strategy includes developing technologies to remove carbon dioxide from the air – the mountainous country hosts one of the most advanced pilot projects in this field – as well as slashing emissions.

United Kingdom

Target date: 2050

Status: In law

Notes: The UK already passed a framework law for cutting emissions in 2008, so setting a net zero target is as simple as replacing 80% with 100%. Parliament passed the amendment on 27 June 2019. Meeting the goal is tougher and the independent Committee on Climate Change (CCC) has emphasised more policies will be needed across sectors to give it life.

Scotland’s devolved parliament is working on a bill to reach net zero in 2045, based on its strong renewable energy resources and capacity to store CO2 in depleted North Sea oilfields. It is expected to pass into law by autumn 2019.

The CCC advised Wales would have a harder job and 95% emissions cuts by 2050 was feasible. The Welsh government accepted the recommendation and expressed an ambition to go further to net zero.

Uruguay

Target date: 2030

Status: Contribution to the Paris Agreement

Notes: This is more of a forecast than a commitment, based on Uruguay’s anomalous trend of increasing forest cover. Combined with policies to reduce emissions from beef farming, waste and energy, this is expected to make the country a net carbon sink by 2030, according to its national submission to the UN pact.